# Strategist

Independent research. Commodities, macro, credit, forensic deep dives. First-principles analysis for investors who'd rather be early than comfortable. 2-3x weekly. Read at 400+ firms. [tscs@tscs-research.com](mailto:tscs@tscs-research.com)

## Articles

### Wait until it is.

Published: Jun 24, 2026

*I’m not going to say gold’s sell-off is over.*

Gold fell again yesterday, down about 1.3% to $4155, and the miners fell harder, Agnico off 4%. The thing I’ve said to wait for, the most beaten-down miners turning up before gold itself does, hasn’t happened. Until it does, this is still going down.

If you hold the miners, you are early, not waiting.

### More than 1,200 cargo ships...

Published: Jun 24, 2026

*More than 1,200 cargo ships carrying about 125 billion dollars of goods were stranded for over 100 days. More than 40 ships hit by missiles, 14 seafarers killed.*

That is the realistic disaster scenario insurers used to only model, and now they have a real one. Traffic is slowly coming back, crossings out of the Gulf rose to 69 in the week …

### The Strait of Hormuz toll

Published: Jun 24, 2026

*The Strait of Hormuz toll, this week. Tuesday, Iran's state TV says Oman agreed to charge service fees.*

Wednesday, Oman says it's opening temporary routes and charging no tolls. The deal promised free passage. We're two days into arguing about whether it's even free.