Strategist

Independent research. Commodities, macro, credit, forensic deep dives. First-principles analysis for investors who'd rather be early than comfortable. 2-3x weekly. Read at 400+ firms. tscs@tscs-research.com

Articles

Wait until it is.

Published: Jun 24, 2026

I’m not going to say gold’s sell-off is over.

Gold fell again yesterday, down about 1.3% to $4155, and the miners fell harder, Agnico off 4%. The thing I’ve said to wait for, the most beaten-down miners turning up before gold itself does, hasn’t happened. Until it does, this is still going down.

If you hold the miners, you are early, not waiting.

More than 1,200 cargo ships...

Published: Jun 24, 2026

More than 1,200 cargo ships carrying about 125 billion dollars of goods were stranded for over 100 days. More than 40 ships hit by missiles, 14 seafarers killed.

That is the realistic disaster scenario insurers used to only model, and now they have a real one. Traffic is slowly coming back, crossings out of the Gulf rose to 69 in the week …

The Strait of Hormuz toll

Published: Jun 24, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz toll, this week. Tuesday, Iran's state TV says Oman agreed to charge service fees.

Wednesday, Oman says it's opening temporary routes and charging no tolls. The deal promised free passage. We're two days into arguing about whether it's even free.