# [Paul Krugman](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/)

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SPEAKER 1

Hi everybody. I've been having an extremely busy week, so no two talking heads conversation this week. Just my head talking alone for a relatively short time. Hi, I'm Paul Krugman. This is, I'm winding down some travel. I've been meeting all sorts of people. face to face, so virtual interactions are down. And I thought I would,

just to give you some kind of Saturday video, I would talk a little bit about latest economic news, markets, things that I don't normally weigh in very much because that kind of market commentary is usually something that is best done by business economists who are focusing on the day-to-day stuff talking to market participants but I think that

the latest stuff is interesting enough to warrant some discussion and maybe a way to think about where we are economically right now so okay if you are if you're paying attention to this stuff you probably know that yesterday was a job report day. The report was unusually strong, certainly stronger than almost any of the professional forecasters expected,

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## Comments on a Freaky Friday

Today my head talks alone

[Paul Krugman](https://substack.com/@paulkrugman)

Jun 06, 2026

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Transcript

Hi everybody. I’ve been having an extremely busy week, so no two talking heads conversation this week. Just my head talking alone for a relatively short time.

Hi, I’m Paul Krugman. I’m winding down some travel, and I’ve been meeting all sorts of people face to face, so virtual interactions are down. So just to give you some kind of Saturday video, I thought I would talk a little bit about latest economic news, markets — things that I don’t normally weigh in very much because that kind of market commentary is usually something that is best done by business economists who are focusing on the day-to-day stuff talking to market participants. But I think that the latest stuff is interesting enough to warrant some discussion and maybe a way to think about where we are economically right now.

So okay, if you’re paying attention to this stuff you probably know that yesterday was a job report day. The report was unusually strong, certainly stronger than almost any of the professional forecasters expected, 172,000 jobs.

Predictably, Trump first boasted about this with a lot of talk about how you know we didn’t have this kind of prosperity under Joe Biden. It is kind of odd given how well things are supposedly going how much Trump and his people talk about Biden. If it was really that much better would you need to be constantly comparing yourself and making claims about how much better you’re doing?

For what it’s worth you know how often during his 48 months in the White House did Biden preside over job reports that were as good as yesterday’s in terms of job creation? The answer is 37 times.

Now, there are reasons why the rapid job growth of the early Biden years, which was coming out of the COVID slump, can’t be replicated. And the fact that immigration is way down means that a normal jobs report is going to be a lower number.

But still this was unexpectedly high job growth but not really something that should alter your fundamental view about how the economy works, although the near-term outlook looks stronger than you might have thought.

One thing I should say, since there are some people wondering, can we trust these numbers? And particularly pointing out that the unemployment rate did not fall, even though we had a unexpectedly big job creation number and wondering how does that add up, are these books being cooked? The answer is no. You’re not helping by saying that.

I’m not saying that the books might not be cooked at some time in the future, but we will know. It will be obvious that this is happening. And it would basically be impossible to do it without there being lots of warning bells, without there being lots of whistleblowers.

So far, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is still apolitical, professional — under-resourced, which is becoming a problem — but these are the best numbers they could do.

If you’re puzzled by how we can have strong job growth and no change in the unemployment rate, the answer is that these are two different surveys. The unemployment rate is based on a survey of households. The job creation number is based on a survey of employers. Those numbers don’t have to match up. I mean, in an ideal world, they would always tell the same story, but there’s statistical noise, there’s sampling error, there’s just conceptual differences.

So this kind of discrepancy is not that unusual. And what it really tells you is, well, is the economy, is the labor market really sort of flat, which is what the unemployment numbers suggest, or are we seeing at least a mini boom in employment, which is what the

nonfarm payroll numbers suggest? And the answer is who knows? Time will tell. Over the course of a year there’s not usually a significant discrepancy in the stories these numbers tell; month by month, well, it’s noisy and you shouldn’t overreact.

Okay trying to make sense of what is going on — why is the labor market as strong as it appears to be? One important point about the economy right now is that there are three big forces that are hitting us. It would be really great from the point of view of professional economists if just one thing would happen at a time. But unfortunately, that’s not how it works. So there are three things happening. First, we are still feeling the effects of Trump’s erratic tariff policy, which has had a depressing effect on employment — not so much the tariffs themselves as the uncertainty. It’s very hard for businesses to make plans, very risky for them to sink money into new ventures when they have no idea what the tariff regime will be a few months down the road. But that uncertainty probably did a one-time hit to employment which is mostly probably behind us because yeah we have crazy erratic trade policy, but that’s now just a piece of the landscape which affects the level of employment, maybe, but not the rate of growth. The second thing is AI. So we have this enormous boom in spending on data centers, a large surge in investment, big rise in stock prices because of hopes about what AI might return. There are not that many people who benefit from high stock prices, but these are people with a lot of money and a lot of spending power. And if they go out and spend more, that boosts the economy. So that’s a sort of force that operates in opposition to the effects of the tariffs.

And possibly the AI-driven spending is coming on now while the tariff effect is sort of closing out.

About oil: For what it’s worth, prediction markets are by and large evil things, but they do give you a quick way of summarizing conventional wisdom. And just about a week ago,

Kalshi said that the probability that the Strait of Hormuz would be open by August 1st was 60%. It’s now 26%. So people have justifiably gotten very skeptical of White House pronouncements that this is just about over. They should have been more skeptical before.

But anyway, it just does not look like it’s going to open. And there’s a still huge remaining uncertainty about what does this imply? Through all of this there’s been a dichotomy between people in financial markets — including people in the futures market for oil who are presumably more professional, less vibes driven than a lot of investors — and what people who actually study the physical market for oil have to say.

And right now futures prices are way up from where they were before the war, but they’re still under $100. Yet the oil industry people are basically hair on fire, saying, we’ve been meeting the loss of supply from the closure of the strait by drawing down inventories and the inventories are very close to critical critically low levels — there’s a certain amount you need to just sort of function — and there were a lot of warnings that really bad things would happen if the strait wasn’t reopened by June 1st. Well guess what here we are, it’s June 6th, D-Day, and the strait is not open. So is there a really severe oil crunch just a few weeks down the pike, or is it kind of manageable?

So are we going to be hovering around current oil prices? I still find the physical oil argument quite persuasive, but I do wonder, again, it’s not like there are a lot of meme stock investors speculating in oil futures. That’s not a market that you would expect to be

highly emotional. We know that there are insider traders who seem to know what Donald Trump is going to do a few minutes before he does it, who are in the market, but they’re probably not enough to be seriously, on a sustained basis, distorting the price. So I don’t know what’s happening on the oil scene except that it is a source of worry.

Other objective economic facts: that jobs report also showed wage growth slowing, which it has been doing for a while, at the same time as inflation has been accelerating. Inflation was first pushed up by the tariffs, and now has been pushed up further by oil prices and prices of other goods, fertilizer, helium, that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. That hit to prices is not all the way through the system. There’s a lot of effects, particularly from diesel prices and also fertilizer, that will show up over time in higher prices of goods that involve using these hydrocarbon-based resources to operate. So inflation is likely to stay elevated for a while. With wage growth slowing down, we are almost surely looking at least another couple of months of falling real wages, which is not a good thing.

I’m a little skeptical of all the K-shaped economy stories — up at the top and down at the bottom. A lot of that is sort of going beyond what the data really say. But it is definitely true that people who earn their income are being hit by inflation and not being compensated with higher wages, while people who own lots of stocks have been doing much, much better. So that’s a real bifurcation.

Of course, people who own lots of stocks are not feeling as good as they did a week ago. We’ve had a significant fall in the stock market and then a real tumble yesterday, more than 4% on the NASDAQ, somewhat less on the other indices, but still significant decline in stocks. The President of the United States went on a rage tweeting or whatever rage truth socialing spree sand said good jobs report should send stocks should go up not down. He somehow or other managed to find ways to contrast himself with Biden and make a lot of accusations against industry people who under-forecast this jobs number as suffering from Trump derangement syndrome.

Actually, a quick point there about conspiracy theorizing. I know people who have to do these NFP, non-farm payroll projections, and they are, whatever their personal views, their job depends on being as correct as possible in the forecast. Every month, they’re evaluated. They have a story. They have a number. Their prediction will be wrong. But there’s always a question, were you better or worse than other forecasters? They do not have any space to indulge their political views.

They will get it wrong. This happens all the time. The economy is a complicated thing. And even with the best will in the world even with the best information in the world, you are going to get it wrong. The idea that there’s a special negativity of economic forecasters towards Trump is ridiculous if you were awake during the last five years. Many of us still remember when Bloomberg put the odds of recession, this was in 2022, put the odds of recession over the next year at 100%. There was no recession.

I don’t think I ever suggested that the professional forecasting of the economy was politicized. And I don’t think it was politicized either for or against Biden, and it isn’t politicized for or against Trump. There was a fundamental misconception, I think, behind those recession forecasts. But that is not a case of politicization.

Anyway, there’s certainly no call for Trump to see himself as a victim. So what is happening? Trump professed to be baffled that a good jobs number should make stocks go down. But of course, it’s actually quite straightforward. What’s happening here is that with the combination of elevated inflation, now largely driven by the effects of Iran, and a job market that is holding up — that is not, in fact, falling off a cliff, if anything, appears to be accelerating — there is no case for cutting interest rates. A few months ago it seemed

plausible that there would be some reduction in interest rates, that the Fed would have a rate cut or two this year. Now the chance of a rate cut, according to the market implied probability uh is around one percent. So there’s essentially no chance that rates will be cut and last I saw the market implied probability that rates will actually be increased is about 70 percent. Not big rate hikes but the Fed is probably going to find itself wanting to lean

against potential inflation, against the possibility that inflation might get entrenched in the economy which is always their great concern. That’s not going to lead to drastic action but by any historical criteria there are is no case for cutting rates and there’s starting to be a reasonable case for increasing rates. Lots of stuff can happen but probably not soon so your expectation about what’s going to happen to the fed funds rate which is a very short term rate, actually literally overnight, has risen substantially that in turn leads to higher rates on longer term stuff which is what matters for economic activity. And that rise in interest rates hurts stocks. There’s always a couple of different ways to say this, but should you put your money in stocks or in bonds, well, if interest rates are higher, people are less inclined to put in stocks or what is really an equivalent thing, since the price of a stock depends upon expectations of profits in the future, if interest rates are higher those future profits are discounted more which means that the price of stocks should fall.

And consistent with that story, the biggest falls in yesterday’s action were in stocks whose value depends much more on profits, hoped for profits sometime well into the future. So the NASDAQ fell 4%. The S&P, which is kind of a mixture of growth stocks and stocks that are driven more by current earnings fell less than that. The Dow, which is even more established companies who already have their profit flows fell less. So this was very clearly interest rates are going to go up because the economy is holding up while inflation is a little worrying and the Fed is not going to cut rates and may well raise rates so of course stocks are down. Nothing odd about that, nothing perverse. All that we learn is that the President of the United States doesn’t understand any of this and he just thinks that he should get interest rate cuts as a gold star for his incredible efforts.

The interesting plot here is what does this do to Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the Fed? Warsh was installed by Trump as somebody who Trump believes will do his will, that he will cut interest rates because Trump says we should cut interest rates and that he will find ways to justify it. And Warsh has been gesturing in that direction, calling upon the Fed to use different measures of inflation that look more benign than the standard measures. That’s an interesting debate, but it’s just so obviously motivated reasoning. It clearly says pick the inflation measures that show the lowest inflation so that we can make a better case for interest rate cuts, which is what Donald Trump wants. It’s clear that this is not a serious intellectual argument.

But I think he has basically no chance of getting those rate cuts. Again, the Fed is not a dictatorship, it’s not even like a corporation where the CEO gets to make big

decisions on his own. The Fed’s interest rate policy is set by a committee — the federal open market committee — which is a mixture of long-serving members of the federal reserve board and presidents of regional feds. Basically it’s not answerable to Donald trump it’s answerable in the long run to elected politicians, but that’s quite a long-run thing. And outside of Trump’s creatures, there is zero support for interest rate cuts on the Fed board now, as there should be none. The logic of an economy where employment still seems to be plugging along and inflation is high is not one in which there’s any rational argument for cutting interest rates.

So what does Warsh do? Does he act like a professional central banker, in which case he will incur enormous rage from the White House, or does he advocate for stuff that he knows, he’s not stupid, and that everybody else, that all of his colleagues know is really, really bad policy, and then just keep losing votes at the FOMC, thereby becoming the least respected, least influential Fed chairman in history. and I don’t know which way that goes but pass the popcorn.

I hope that I’ve been clear in the past in warning people against expecting instant gratification in people who are opposed to Trump in expecting instant gratification I’ve been I’ve made that mistake myself as well but if you want the fact that Trump is doing terrible things, which he is, to cause a severe recession now or a month from now or six months from now, well, unfortunately economics is not a morality play. The wages of bad behavior take much much longer and are much more diffuse. There’s all kinds of things happening out there so the idea that you could expect catastrophe just because you have catastrophically bad leadership is true in warfare as we’re seeing in Iran, it’s true maybe at the level of corporate competition. But something like the US economy is a lot less sensitive especially in the short run to the quality of leadership at the top of the United States because the US government influences the economy but doesn’t run it so this is not going to be the kind of spectacular flame out that many people would like for political reasons to see. So on we go.

For what it’s worth, I don’t see anything that’s happening now that will turn around the public’s extremely negative view of the economy. Most people don’t care what the job number is, as they shouldn’t. It’s not something that affects their lives directly. The perceived state of things is that although we don’t have high unemployment,

jobs are hard to find and prices are rising and they’re rising faster than wages. That’s not an ideological point, that’s just a fact. So people are going to stay negative and I guess have some sense that we have crazy erratic leadership. And loud proclamations that this is the

hottest economy ever and it’s great and it’s wonderful are almost truly counterproductive politically. This is a time when Trump could really take some lessons from Bill Clinton and say that he feels our pain, which would be a lie. He doesn’t, but he can’t even pretend that he does.

And so this is going to continue to be a very negative economic situation. The one thing that I think Trump thought he had was the stock market, which is again not that relevant to many people but statistically appears to have some impact on consumer sentiment so naturally he’s enraged that stocks went down after yesterday’s pretty good jobs report.

So I do think that we’re looking at a situation where it’s hard to explain why people are quite as negative on the economy as they are, except that it they have a kind of cumulative feeling that the system is rigged and that the people in charge are not on their side, which at this point is very much true.

So this is very unlikely to turn around, certainly very unlikely since everything is political, very unlikely to turn around before the midterm elections.

I think that was a happy note. Anyway, take care and I’ll be back to my regular format of interviews and everything else in a few days. Bye.

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[253 Restacks](https://substack.com/note/p-200869893/restacks?utm_source=substack&utm_content=facepile-restacks)

#### Discussion about this video

CommentsRestacks

[Tall One](https://substack.com/profile/9270263-tall-one?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271597471 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:32 AM")

Could Iran be waiting to negotiate/open the straits until after the midterms? Like 1980 when the hostages came home on Regan’s inauguration day?

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[Ann](https://substack.com/profile/111215522-ann?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271603436 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:45 AM")

OMG, this is a brilliant take. I am full of evil laughter at the idea you may be right.

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[Margaret Wheatley](https://substack.com/profile/145170329-margaret-wheatley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271625037 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:29 AM")

The World Cup and summer vacations Might explain that 70,000 of the jobs are in the service sector

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[GJ Loft ME CA FL IL NE CT MI](https://substack.com/profile/140646743-gj-loft-me-ca-fl-il-ne-ct-mi?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271667500 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:54 AM")

True. I heard that yesterday on CNBC, which I usually don't listen to. They mentioned that and that most of the other jobs added were low paying service industry jobs

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[Judy](https://substack.com/profile/244047126-judy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271695894 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:52 PM") Edited

Women being hired to do healthcare jobs. Probably not hired to fill the vacancy of CEO at UnitedHealthcare. Snarky, but you know what I mean.

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[GJ Loft ME CA FL IL NE CT MI](https://substack.com/profile/140646743-gj-loft-me-ca-fl-il-ne-ct-mi?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271703671 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:08 PM")

Yeah, I get it. Trump's idea of stimulating the economy is trickle down of the $50 billion in new no-bid government contracts to the donors of his ballroom. I knew I should have donated when I had the chance. (Oh yeah, I didn't have the chance or the $$$$).

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[Apache](https://substack.com/profile/187388458-apache?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271772047 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:38 PM")

Hello GJ... DJT doesn't Feel-Our-Pain... DJT only takes Bribes from the Mar-a-Lago Mob....

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272002190 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:22 AM") Edited

My partner tried to watch World Cups Live through Hispanic TV stations several times in the middle of the night before and he is thinking about boycotting this year.

Whoever is adding jobs due to the Trump's War cup or the summer "vacation" might lose big.

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[Don B](https://substack.com/profile/250163773-don-b?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272331842 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:29 PM")

I like the “evil laughter” bit!

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[Mark McIntyre](https://substack.com/profile/320393755-mark-mcintyre?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271630396 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:40 AM")

Iran knows Trump is under pressure, believes they are winning and will survive any onslaught. What the Trumpian war hawks like Hellsbreath don't seem to comprehend is for Iran this is about the survival of Shi'a Islam in a rough Sunni neighborhood.

When the U.S. and Israel dispatched the Ayatollah, it was the equivalent of assassinating the Pope. The Supreme Leader and Ayatollah of Iran is also the head of all Shi'ites.

When Prophet Muhammad died in 632 AD. there was a battle over succession. Sunnis believe Shi'ites are heretics and the Sunni/Shi'a Divide has driven Middle East events ever since.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271719369 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:42 PM")

Many local conflicts stem from Sunni/Shi'a and the lack of equivalents to the European Reformation and Enlightenment periods.

But the Ottoman Empire (Sunni) was in charge of a pretty large area for a pretty long time, and Shi'a was accepted better than the conflict oriented narrative implies.

It is also important to include European and US meddling as a driver of Middle East events also. Crusades, Imperialism, Zionism and gunboat diplomacy for oil and canals were pushed on the region.

It is a mess, and there are Western fingerprints all over it in addition to local issues.

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[michael schattman](https://substack.com/profile/26362808-michael-schattman?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271887695 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:39 PM")

You got that right! The Sunni-Shi’a split is fundamentally irreconcilable. One of the smartest things I ever did was taking two years of Islamic Civilization and History in my college years, which also included the Ottoman centuries of rule. Although nominally Sunni, the Turks equally oppressed the Arabs & Persians of both persuasions. They had come to rule. Not to be friends of fellow Muslims.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271659592 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:38 AM")

Agreed, to Iran this is an existential battle.

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[chris lemon](https://substack.com/profile/8699641-chris-lemon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271812160 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:12 PM")

It's surprising more people don't see this. Where would they retreat to? The idea that the would surrender to a cabal of Israeli and US stooges is absurd.

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[Margaret Wheatley](https://substack.com/profile/145170329-margaret-wheatley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271748777 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:46 PM")

yes and thank you for “Hellsbreath”

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[Randy Mihm](https://substack.com/profile/26330102-randy-mihm?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272114941 "Jun 7, 2026, 10:08 AM")

The US does not oppose Iran because they are Shia but because they are a fundamentalist and thus irrational nuclear wanabe. The same risk will be there if the Ultra-orthodox control Israel or a fundamentalist Sunni country stats a nuclear program.

Iran can be Shia without existential threats from other countries if they were moderate.

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[Winston Smith London Oceania](https://substack.com/profile/308852488-winston-smith-london-oceania?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271627245 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:34 AM")

I think they're waiting for the next president.

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[Tall One](https://substack.com/profile/9270263-tall-one?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271666668 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:52 AM")

Actively wanting Dems to win house and Senate and rein in Israel…

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[Carole](https://substack.com/profile/236644928-carole?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271679721 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:19 PM")

Oh man - sure hope you’re prescient Tall One!!!!!

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[Don B](https://substack.com/profile/250163773-don-b?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272333543 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:33 PM")

Highly unlikely. Democrats have been supportive of Israel’s atrocities for decades.

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[Tall One](https://substack.com/profile/9270263-tall-one?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272337287 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:41 PM")

Yeah but they never bombed Iran.

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[Don B](https://substack.com/profile/250163773-don-b?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272342063 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:52 PM")

And your point is?

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[Tall One](https://substack.com/profile/9270263-tall-one?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272342742 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:54 PM")

That Trump is the first president to bomb Iran most likely at Netanyahu’s request.

I thought that as obvious.

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[Don B](https://substack.com/profile/250163773-don-b?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272390193 "Jun 7, 2026, 7:50 PM")

I’m sure there were many pro-Israel democrats who quietly approved of Trump’s war against Iran.

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[Don B](https://substack.com/profile/250163773-don-b?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272343782 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:56 PM")

Correct. Bibi played Trump really well.

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[chris lemon](https://substack.com/profile/8699641-chris-lemon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271814755 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:19 PM") Edited

I believe they are in extensive background negotiations with most of the neighboring countries, pointing out that the US will eventually leave the region, but Iran will still be there. The Iranians intend to drive the US out of all the countries they can, leaving only Saudi Arabia and Isreal as American vassals in the region. It's a longer term plan than US political cycles. The US proved all the Iranian hardliners points when they joined Israel in a surprise attack during negotiations.

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[Winston Smith London Oceania](https://substack.com/profile/308852488-winston-smith-london-oceania?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271816654 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:23 PM")

That's entirely possible.

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[Sharon](https://substack.com/profile/35281868-sharon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271655521 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:30 AM")

Wishful thinking. The problem is: what Iran wants and what the US and Israel want are two very different things. Right now, Trump is hoping to make a weaker JCPOA, (Obama's deal) and declare victory. Iran has no incentive to make a deal, or even look as if they're making a deal. How is Trump going to remove our military, hand over Iran's frozen assets and end trade sanctions without looking like a loser?

Trump has crushed domestic opposition...literally bombing the prisons where dissenters were held and Israel took out anyone who was slightly moderate. Oops! We have no one to make a deal with. Sorry about that.

It's going to go on and on in this stalemate, costing us hundreds of billions of dollars. Trumps buddies are making out like bandits on speculation and higher oil prices.

Besides, Trump has other things to concern himself with...a ballroom, an arch and a new mega elite golf course built on top of an old public one.

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[Fred WI](https://substack.com/profile/24530487-fred-wi?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272439536 "Jun 7, 2026, 10:05 PM")

The incentive to make a deal requires a probable expectation that the deal will be honored. Trump doesn't follow through or intends to honor any agreement. Once you signa deal with Trump et al is when you start checking for shorts, delays, quibbling, and grifting. IMHO

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[Jon Harrison](https://substack.com/profile/120424193-jon-harrison?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271680404 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:20 PM")

"Iran has no incentive to make a deal . . ." I don't quite agree with that. Iran faces the possibility of running out of cash, food, and even water eventually. No doubt the people in charge there are seeking to drive a very hard bargain, but materially their country is at a disadvantage. I still believe there will be some sort of agreement that both parties sign off on, maybe by August.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272004472 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:32 AM")

As a Chinese, I think most likely Iran wouldn't negotiate with US or Israel and there is a high chance they would build an alliance with other Arab nations.

It is their Opium War.

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[chris lemon](https://substack.com/profile/8699641-chris-lemon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271821318 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:35 PM")

So much winning....

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271782893 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:03 PM")

It appears that the IRGC are running the country, although they be broken into factions.

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[Conky](https://substack.com/profile/26232769-conky?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271761786 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:15 PM")

Reagan and Bush (Sr) arranged with the Iranians to delay the hostage release until after the1980 election. The original October Surprise. Iran got the spare parts for its USA provided military equipment it urgently needed to fight off the Iraqi invasion, while Reagan got the election handed to him on a silver platter.

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[Aurora Trischka](https://substack.com/profile/166843216-aurora-trischka?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271801397 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:46 PM")

More people need to know about that dirty trick. Typical of Republicans.

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[Jon Harrison](https://substack.com/profile/120424193-jon-harrison?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271608528 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:56 AM")

Could be, I suppose.

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[Jess Behrens](https://substack.com/profile/97109005-jess-behrens?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271652595 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:24 AM")

I think they're just waiting because, from a game theory point of view, it benefits them. Who knows how long that will be.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271661777 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:43 AM") Edited

Iran are dragging time since it does not hurt them and they can manage the shortcomings. They're hoping that the Gulf states on the other side of the Persian Gulf gets exhausted before they do and then pushes for an agreement.

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[Potter](https://substack.com/profile/55658090-potter?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271851237 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:52 PM")

The Iranians have smarts.

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[Stephen Schiff](https://substack.com/profile/110998210-stephen-schiff?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271704048 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:09 PM")

Based on the historical reality- stretching back to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in Trump's first term- there is little motivation for Iran to end the stalemate. I suspect that at least a temporary agreement is possible within the months based on the impending depletion of oil reserves possibly accompanied by pressure from Republicans in Congress who may be facing defeat at the polls in November.

I don't think the Iranians can hold out much longer than that.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271658094 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:35 AM")

No, Iran couldn't care less about US politics. As another poster mentions, Iran has to position themselves to Sunni Islam states (the Gulf states on the other side of the Persian Gulf), which are the ones hurting most by the closure and blockade of the Hormuz strait. The US has a rather high number of permanent troops on the ground in those states.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271786028 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:10 PM")

Iran would better off if the Dems win in November. They’ve already voted for a resolution to end the war. Only a handful of Republicans voted for it.

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[chris lemon](https://substack.com/profile/8699641-chris-lemon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271822495 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:38 PM")

It's quaint that congress continues to pretend that their votes matter.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271861981 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:21 PM")

Yes, it’s pretty discouraging.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271826364 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:47 PM")

It wont change the geography and politics of the Middle East. The Dems allowed Bibi to smash Gaza and US troops are stationed in the Gulf states.

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[Tall One](https://substack.com/profile/9270263-tall-one?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271728245 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:01 PM")

Of course but tying Trump’s hands by helping Dems win house and Senate removes some support for Israel…pleasing some.

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[Phil](https://substack.com/profile/291735622-phil?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271786956 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:13 PM")

Netanyahu has tied himself to Trump and the Israelis have tied themselves to Netanyahu.

Politically, that means the Democratic party has no political ties to the State of Israel.

There will be an equivalent reaction to the Republicans refusal to fund Ukraine.

Shorter: Iran is going to do everything it can to punish the Republican party, including keeping the Strait closed until the midterms, because hurting Republicans hurts Israel.

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[Tall One](https://substack.com/profile/9270263-tall-one?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271788962 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:17 PM")

That is what I thought I said!

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[Phil](https://substack.com/profile/291735622-phil?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272107584 "Jun 7, 2026, 9:52 AM")

Sorry. I thought you were saying the opposite.

My bad.

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[BTAM Master](https://substack.com/profile/41333369-btam-master?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271642549 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:04 AM")

How about if Iran says: "Fertilizer can pass through to all countries except Israel and the US." Iran would look like humanitarian heroes since they'd alleviate a global famine started by Israel and the US...and the PR disaster for the US if it either continued - or relinquished - the blockade.

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[Judy](https://substack.com/profile/244047126-judy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271699682 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:00 PM")

The U.S. would need to create a shadow fleet of fertilizer-carrying ships. The irony!

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[BTAM Master](https://substack.com/profile/41333369-btam-master?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271709512 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:20 PM")

Imagine the scandal if that happened! Would the MSM report it? Perhaps the late, great 60 minutes would have.

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[Sharon](https://substack.com/profile/35281868-sharon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271656425 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:32 AM")

I've heard that some ships are passing through. No idea what the deal is. Only a few mentions here and there.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271784728 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:07 PM")

Yes. It’s unclear what’s going on, whether or not the ships are paying the toll.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271784005 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:06 PM")

They couldn’t enforce it. Once the ships pass the Strait, Iran has no way to control them.

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[Daniel J Armstrong](https://substack.com/profile/199694197-daniel-j-armstrong?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272521907 "Jun 8, 2026, 3:18 AM")

All those people that were employed in Goverment jobs that were offered buyouts are probably looking to come back into the market. Employment versus Unemployment numbers because of jobs starting to fall off the goverment rosters; or were over reported initially are going to show up. That 2025 template has alot of goverment jobs going to the private sector. Is that a shift in employment as opposed new job growth? Quality immigration pretty much currently non-existent. Oh yeah.. the war & AI. Pretty fluid economy

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[Linda Weide](https://substack.com/profile/25228499-linda-weide?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272033513 "Jun 7, 2026, 6:33 AM") Edited

That is certainly a POV that many have been making. Malcolm Nance has suggested it on his Substack Podcast that he does together with Jacob Kaarsbo and Wajeeh Lion. Of course it would not be like on Reagan's inauguration day, because the Reagan administration made a deal with the Iranians back then to hold the hostages until he won, and I don't know what they were promised, but now we have a situation where the Iranians are a lot of control of the global energy picture. That was not negotiated with the opposition in the US, or I do not believe it is.

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[Stephen](https://substack.com/profile/23360797-stephen?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271598905 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:35 AM")

Just like his first term, trump should have given his predecessor a big thank you for giving him a growing economy. History tells us he'll pass on a piece of crap to his successor.

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[LiverpoolFCfan](https://substack.com/profile/5215700-liverpoolfcfan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271617921 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:15 AM") Edited

As always, Republicans crash the economy, then Dems repair it while Republicans bitch and moan that they're not doing it right, or fast enough.

I think Americans are wearying of the whiplash.

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[Acela](https://substack.com/profile/219510009-acela?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271647634 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:14 AM")

Trump got lucky inheriting Obama's economy, after Obama had to clean up after George W. Bush. But then Trump botched the 2020 Covid response and left things in tatters, with many thousands of Americans dead.

Things only got worse until Biden came. The absolute worst month for Covid deaths was January 2021 – the month Trump left office – with 105,566 Americans dead.

“I don't take responsibility at all,” was Trump’s response in 2020. How did people forget all this stuff in the voting booths in 2024? Not even mentioning January 6th.

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[Brian D Collins](https://substack.com/profile/317896337-brian-d-collins?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271673038 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:05 PM")

"No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people." ... Mencken

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[Acela](https://substack.com/profile/219510009-acela?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271690884 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:41 PM")

The irony is, which party does a better job for those people? Which party is better for the economy?

Overall, the record is clear: Since 1949, annual real GDP growth is 1.2% faster during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations.

Total job growth has averaged 2.5% annually under Democrats, while it’s barely over 1% annually under Republicans.

Business investment is higher during Democratic administrations, with investment growth more than double the rate of Republican ones.

Families in the lowest 20% of income experience 188% faster income growth during Democratic administrations.

All five recessions since 1980 have begun under the GOP. The 1929 and 2008 depressions both happened with incompetent, anti-tax, anti-regulatory Republican presidents leading the nation over the cliffs.

Trump was the only president on record to have lost jobs, with 2.7 million fewer American jobs when he left office than when he entered. By contrast, the USA added 16 million jobs under Biden, with the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in five decades.

Of the 51 million new American jobs from 1989-2024, 50 million of them were created under Democratic administrations. That's 98%.

Bottom line: Republican presidents are lousy for the economy, and have been nowhere near as beneficial as Democratic presidents. And already Trump has created a gargantuan mess for the next president to clean up.

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[Brian D Collins](https://substack.com/profile/317896337-brian-d-collins?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271719731 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:42 PM")

I cannot disagree with what you say. I was born in 1950 and for my entire lifetime this pattern has held true. And yet, the message that Republican policies are bad for the average American has failed to make an impression on the minds of at least half of those average Americans. Meanwhile, the average European enjoys social support that we can only dream of. I am forced to conclude that, as a nation, we are either incredibly stupid and/or thick-headed, or that, for some reason, the progressive message is not couched in terms that penetrate the American mind.

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[Acela](https://substack.com/profile/219510009-acela?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271776749 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:49 PM")

Good question. It’s because Republican politicians have become skilled at fooling people that any societal benefit (which their wealthy donors don’t want to pay for) is “socialism,” and therefore evil and un-American.

That’s despite Americans already having popular programs our government has provided for the past century which could be called the same thing.

Instead, these politicians feed people Fox falsehoods and faux machismo and focus on distracting culture wars rather than the issues that really help and make a difference for people in their everyday lives… like what they have in Europe, as you note:

Universal healthcare, Affordable higher education, Guaranteed 4+ weeks of vacation, Strong employee protections, Guaranteed childcare, Guaranteed family leave, Better consumer protections, Greater environmental protections, Lower poverty rates, Higher food quality and safety, Better public transit and walkability, Greater personal privacy rights, 1/20th of the gun violence, 4 years longer average lifespan.

Those poor Europeans!

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[Judy](https://substack.com/profile/244047126-judy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271702049 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:05 PM")

Can you post the sources you used for these statements? I'd love to be able to mention theses stats, in conversation, in comments, etc.

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[Acela](https://substack.com/profile/219510009-acela?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271768390 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:30 PM") Edited

Good idea. Those figures were from just before Election Day 2024, which is when that was put together. The statistics came from the New York Times, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, and other reliable sources.

Regardless, most people should recognize that it objectively matches the history of the past several decades:

1988-1992 – Stagnation under President Bush I, ending in recession

1993-2000 – Economic growth and prosperity under President Clinton

2001-2008 – Bush II housing bubble/crash ending in the Great Recession

2009-2016 – Expansion again under Obama + health insurance coverage

2017-2021 – Trump’s Covid disaster, ending in recession and January 6

Would love to see Prof. Krugman do a post on this phenomenon.

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[Judy](https://substack.com/profile/244047126-judy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271971713 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:02 AM")

Um, yeah, guess I'll just have to chase them down myself.

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[Susan Borkowski](https://substack.com/profile/18035965-susan-borkowski?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271672133 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:03 PM")

I just checked [Statbase.org](http://statbase.org/). It looks like from 2020-2025 US had 2.1+ million deaths from COVID total.

The Global Statstics also gave 2.1 million+ for the same time span in the US.

Just saying.

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[Carole](https://substack.com/profile/236644928-carole?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271680463 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:20 PM")

No excuse for stupid…

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271723691 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:51 PM")

Median reading in the US is below the 6th grade level.

There are a lot of people in that half who are poorly informed because they lack the skills to inform themselves accurately.

Ignorance, willful or otherwise, is a major factor.

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[Carole](https://substack.com/profile/236644928-carole?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271798448 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:39 PM")

And not researching and fact checking

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[George Patterson](https://substack.com/profile/35450922-george-patterson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271640334 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:59 AM")

Some of us certainly are, but the RepublicRats set most of the nasty stuff in the "Big Beautiful Bill" act to kick in after the midterms. When all the cuts to Medicaid and other programs kick in next year, they'll blame all of it on the Democrats.

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[BTAM Master](https://substack.com/profile/41333369-btam-master?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271643713 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:06 AM")

Specifically Biden. Trump's tombstone will blame Biden.

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[George Patterson](https://substack.com/profile/35450922-george-patterson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271732143 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:09 PM")

They'll blame Democrats if the Dems win the midterms; Biden if not.

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[Joanna Weinberger](https://substack.com/profile/11285243-joanna-weinberger?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271689379 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:38 PM") Edited

Dems this time must focus first on structural changes to preserve their Dem economy before they do any actual economic repairs. Dems need to pass a law which says only a human being may be a US citizen. Then they need to enforce that law.

Restoring oversight functions, Inspectors General, and such comes next.

Then they can install Bidenomics and restore US diplomacy.

I cannot easily project the inventory in the arsenal in 2028, but there will be new jobs from expansion of drone interceptor manufacturing lines plus replacement of the usuals. Shipbuilding for the Navy will continue. The US Air Force today is below its legally mandated number of aircraft, so aerospace could be booming.

Dems will pivot the nation back to green energy. Look for jobs growth in car charging station manufacturing, electric vehicle batteries, electric vehicle manufacturing, residential PV and battery systems. US needs more domestic manufacturing of mid-sized electric transformers. Ocean-going shipping will be transformed by hybrid sail power for the merchant fleet. More work at the shipyards.

National passenger rail can be planned in the first four-year administration and built in the second. Look for train stations intertwined with electric car rental and Uber-type transit points which support both train passengers and local communities.

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[antipode77](https://substack.com/profile/8358444-antipode77?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271709885 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:21 PM")

Their VERY FIRST PRIORITY NEEDS TO BE SCOTUS REFORM.

Otherwise any and all reforms being introduced by Democrats will be shot down under the Robert's SCOTUS.

It is quite clear how very partisan this SCOTUS is to Republican interests, no matter precedent etcetera.

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[James Jordan](https://substack.com/profile/23609638-james-jordan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271841728 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:26 PM")

Don't forget to add a "fix" for social security insurance, unemployment insurance and Medicare Health insurance. It will be a tough issue for the Democratic majority congress. I have no idea how it will play out but given what I know the fix should start by eliminating the cap. This may not be enough so additional sources of revenue or changes in eligibility will be required.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271984620 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:02 AM") Edited

Social Security can only be saved by lowering eligibility for those who get the most (while upping payments for those who now get too little to live on).

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271982845 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:54 AM") Edited

@Johanna. "National passenger rail can be planned in the first four-year administration and built in the second."

CA they started in 1981 with planning for passenger rail. In 1996 a Rail Authority was formed. In 2008 voter mandate for a bond passed. In 2015 they demolished obstructions (also shops and homes) in Fresno. In 2025 some rail was put down for logistics in Kern Co.

In 2026 not a single piece of actual rail has been laid for the proposed tract. Maybe they will start later this year. Or maybe not. Expected opening year - for the Central Valley segment only! - between 2030-33. Or 2036. (Or maybe never.)

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[Les Peters](https://substack.com/profile/25791645-les-peters?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271613200 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:05 AM")

And both of those predecessors didn’t melt down when the monthly jobs report and stock market went in different directions. I recall many instances of poor monthly jobs reports occurring at the same time stocks reached new highs during the Obama and Biden years.

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[Winston Smith London Oceania](https://substack.com/profile/308852488-winston-smith-london-oceania?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271628151 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:35 AM")

And, as usual, that successor will be blamed for that piece of crap.

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[Abandoned Afghan Ally](https://substack.com/profile/385685446-abandoned-afghan-ally?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271604108 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:47 AM")

​Paul Krugman explains very well why Trump don't understand economics and why the stock market fell after the jobs report. Trump always thinks everything is a conspiracy against him when stocks go down. But honestly, while Washington is crying about NASDAQ falling 4% and interest rates going up, nobody cares about the real human tragedy. I am an Afghan wartime ally who served with US troops for 20 long years and got injured. Trump immigration laws put giant roadblocks on our life and blocked all visa ways. Politicians and bankers like Kevin Warsh only care about pleasing Trump or fixing stock prices for rich people, but they completely forget the loyal partners who bleed for America. This system is truly broken when Wall Street matters more than wartime honor

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[BAHumbug](https://substack.com/profile/211716735-bahumbug?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271607560 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:54 AM") Edited

Thanks Paul. The truth of the matter is that lots of people like me (retired professor with a brain) are now in the position of thinking that everything out of this administration is a lie, especially when we are watching our own, self-employed, highly educated children struggle to manage child care and health care and meeting basic expenses. I am particularly angry that AI has stolen all our collective knowledge and now is going to charge us dearly.... Stolen data is what fuels AI... where is the accountability and where are the legal safeguards? Face it Paul, we are going down the tubes, sooner or later.... and no one with any power is doing much about it. You and I had a good life with loads of opportunity...our kids and grandkids will NOT.

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[Eugene Crook](https://substack.com/profile/205151148-eugene-crook?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271753855 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:58 PM")

AI profiting off stolen data is like the slave system that profited off stolen labor. That system was immoral. The judgment about AI is yet to be revealed. I think there is some justification in the argument that we the people should have some proportion of the profits. But my guess it will be like the tariffs/taxes that were collected illegally from each of us. We'll never see that money again.

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[Carol Bradford](https://substack.com/profile/193837816-carol-bradford?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272154470 "Jun 7, 2026, 11:27 AM")

AI is stealing every word that has ever been written, every note of music, every sound, every image ever created, churning it all up, regurgitating it and then charging us all to use it. There is no doubt in my mind that this is immoral and unethical.

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[Mr. No Knowthing](https://substack.com/profile/29408039-mr-no-knowthing?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273003500 "Jun 8, 2026, 9:01 PM")

You can buy a book, read it, and reuse that information as many times as you want. You can use it to write an article, to make a YouTube video, or any other legal purpose. How is AI different?

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271790751 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:21 PM")

💯agree.

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[James Moseley](https://substack.com/profile/370463414-james-moseley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271597110 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:31 AM")

They also need jobs because our retirement earnings are bailing out big tech. Oh yeah. Pension fund companies like Apollo are funneling your retirement money into huge covenant lite revolving credit loans into tech companies like xAI and Nvidia. They do this through Bermuda, where pension fund regulations are highly lax. 401ks have also never been so concentrated into one sector (tech). You are bailing out these tech companies every time they loan more than they make and you don’t even know it. I’ll post a chart explaining the whole nasty business. It’s needlessly complicated but run it through AI and you can understand it

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[Terri](https://substack.com/profile/118456414-terri?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271610642 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:00 AM")

James, it's really scary to me that Michael Burry is calling this out and I don't think many folks are paying attention. Based on his track record, we need to be listening, which it sounds like you are. It is very complex, as you stated, but maybe this article can add some more details to what you are pointing out.

[https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/michael-burry-doubles-down-on-nvidia-and-stock-market-message](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/michael-burry-doubles-down-on-nvidia-and-stock-market-message)

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[James Moseley](https://substack.com/profile/370463414-james-moseley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271611422 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:02 AM")

Thank you very much. Everybody hates Michael Burry for his crime of being right. I’ll read it

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271789606 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:19 PM")

And the latest one is SpaceX, soon going public, will make Musk a trillionaire.

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[James Moseley](https://substack.com/profile/370463414-james-moseley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271795781 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:33 PM")

lol. I know. For a company that has lost money consistently. Some day, when Musk comes begging for a bail out, we will all get a look at his books and discover that he is way poorer than he advertises.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271799476 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:41 PM")

It’s looks fishy, with special standards just for SpaceX.

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[Francois N. Dupuis Jr.](https://substack.com/profile/61689680-francois-n-dupuis-jr?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271591712 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:19 AM")

Isn't it likely that these jobs numbers will be revised down?

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[Meighan Corbett](https://substack.com/profile/110973789-meighan-corbett?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271603914 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:46 AM")

Of course, that's possible, but the numbers for the previous two months were actually revised upward, I believe. Trump and Warsh are caught between a rock and a hard place. Which makes me so happy.

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[LHS](https://substack.com/profile/308991122-lhs?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271634227 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:47 AM")

"I don’t know which way that goes but pass the popcorn". 🤣

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[Arnold Banner](https://substack.com/profile/331371075-arnold-banner?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271609891 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:59 AM")

I liked Paul's ending up with the main reason for our anger at 'the economy'; bad people are in charge, and they are running things for their benefit exclusively. It's never been more apparent.

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[Spencer Weart](https://substack.com/profile/12661158-spencer-weart?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602667 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:43 AM") Edited

Who thinks the system is rigged? Well, rich people and corporations think the system is rigged IN THEIR FAVOR and they're kind of right. So it's small wonder if stocks are still near an all-time high... while the rest of us who see the system rigged the wrong way remain unhappy.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271792238 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:25 PM")

It’s absolutely rigged to benefit the wealthy. Although even they control recessions.

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[Arnold Pritchard](https://substack.com/profile/128687116-arnold-pritchard?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271607085 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:53 AM")

Regarding the point that it can take time for bad leadership to have an impact - one of my fears is that the disastrous consequences of Trumpism on the economy will hit after the next president takes office, and they will get blamed for it.

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[Declan](https://substack.com/profile/957946-declan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272964434 "Jun 8, 2026, 7:23 PM")

Yes Arnold….D will deliberately sabotage the e onomy in ‘27 to screw a Dem Prez, just like he sabotaged Bidens situation in Afghanistan

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[David McDonell](https://substack.com/profile/48533558-david-mcdonell?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271594057 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:24 AM")

"Freaky Friday" indeed! -- thanks for this comprehensive and cogent analysis, and "keep the faith" 👊✌️

PS- here is a suggestion for a future "musical coda" article accompaniment: "If" by Rudyard Kipling performed by Joni Mitchell

[https://youtu.be/i1Xwo4V6AcY?si=0f5ZEN3caNYNsZ9e](https://youtu.be/i1Xwo4V6AcY?si=0f5ZEN3caNYNsZ9e)

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[Michael Williams](https://substack.com/profile/43111979-michael-williams?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271624754 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:29 AM")

How 'bout "If..." performed by Malcolm McDowell?

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[David McDonell](https://substack.com/profile/48533558-david-mcdonell?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271626375 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:32 AM")

Suit yourself. I prefer Joni Mitchell's version, especially as a counter point in our current "hellscape" (nod to @waj)

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[David Reid](https://substack.com/profile/16889883-david-reid?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271623584 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:26 AM")

I'm curious...is there a benefit to employers posting jobs that they have no intention of filling?

I got laid off from my Program Manager job at a Bio-Tech company almost 3 months ago, and spend every morning dutifully going through job postings on the various message boards, spending out applications/resumes/cover letters. I have applied to approximately 100 job openings...and have yet to get even one response from an actual person. And I continue to see the same postings cropping up over and over again.

So...while there may not be a conspiracy about cooking the books...anyone who says this is a robust job market is not actually on the front lines, trying to find a decent gig.

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[robert](https://substack.com/profile/931680-robert?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271657877 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:35 AM")

I think job stats belong on the bottom of the bird cage.

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[Sharon](https://substack.com/profile/35281868-sharon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271660059 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:39 AM")

Yeah, bio tech started cutting their work force last year. My husband's contract didn't get renewed even though there was plenty of work and they liked his performance. He worked by the hour. Their salaried employees were getting work piled higher and higher. They asked him about going salary. It was a resounding no. We are retirement age. Thank God for a fixed income.

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[David Reid](https://substack.com/profile/16889883-david-reid?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271813488 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:15 PM")

My company got hit by a patent lawsuit by the #1 competitor...lost the lawsuit...went Chapter 11...bought up by a German company. I had been there 8 years...survived 4 prior rounds of downsizing. I tell people I was surprised "when" it happened...not "that" it happened.

Job searching is rough...I'm not quite 62...so not ready for early retirement, but too old to make a career change.

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[Peter Liepmann](https://substack.com/profile/39348820-peter-liepmann?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272146271 "Jun 7, 2026, 11:11 AM")

[https://www.asktheheadhunter.com/15912/old-managers](https://www.asktheheadhunter.com/15912/old-managers)

"Select, don’t settle.

Start by picking one target company. Does it seem odd to pick a company rather than job openings? It won’t when you realize that the best jobs aren’t hidden in the ads; they’re hidden in the companies you want to work for. Your challenge is to dig into those companies and ferret out the jobs..."

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271727528 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:59 PM")

If a company is trying to hire a H1B candidate the job must be advertised.

This isn't quite the same as a position that isn't actually open, but at some places it does mean that applications are welcome but unlikely to succeed.

Not all places game the system this way, but some certainly do.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271977873 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:31 AM")

H1Bs in biotech has never been that much. It's different from computer sciences. It seems to me you are trying to steer the conversation into blaming the immigrants.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272263225 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:04 PM") Edited

Well, they are coming in and taking the jobs, aren't they? So they deserve that blame.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272508261 "Jun 8, 2026, 2:25 AM")

Companies actually need to jump through hoops to hire H1B workers, even though the indentured servant visa status make them attractive (less entitlements and troublemakers). The abyssal state of US K12 public education in general and the glorification of fast money are the main reason of the H1B visa shortage. The situation has changed a lot the last decade in the field of computer sciences though. The current young generation of Americans are quite good and there is overflow of supply in computer science graduates. Compounded by AI applications, I think there will be (or is?) a slow down on H1B demand.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272511770 "Jun 8, 2026, 2:40 AM") Edited

People needed for jobs should be issued Green Cards - for lower level jobs as well as high level employment. Non-immigrant work-visa are cruel, cause a lot of stress because of insecurity. And a lot of unnecessary energy & effort is spent at USCIS, State Department, US Embassies and Consulates all over the world for their issuance.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272513479 "Jun 8, 2026, 2:47 AM")

I am not sure that’s going to fly in any country. A country’s tax-paying citizens do have the right to work before the non-citizens. Otherwise, the system collapses.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272518734 "Jun 8, 2026, 3:05 AM") Edited

I wrote: "people needed for jobs". NOT: "everyone who wants to take a job in the US".

About 650-700,000 peope are allowed into in the US every year based on a Family Relationship with a US Citizen (some cases LPR). They get Green Cards right-away after being processed (and for some that can take years). There are for these imigrants no requirements re. education, skills, work-experience, etc. Just being the Immediate Relative or a Family Member of a US citizen is enough.

But work-bound immigrants - selected because they are needed and have proper qualifications - have to first suffer through several years of insecurity before they can get their Green Card?

Amazing how everyone always points at the H-1Bs and not at the much larger group of IR and FB immigrants. The latter can start working the day after they arrive, in whatever job they want.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272525581 "Jun 8, 2026, 3:32 AM")

Who do you trust more? People who are your family of your fellow citizens, or those who are only seeking temporary financial gain?

Immigration is a human phenomenon that also follows human instinct.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272927356 "Jun 8, 2026, 5:58 PM") Edited

Oh please, now we have entered la-la-land. No immigrant is related to all 340 Million US citizens. And many who invite family members in, became Citizens themselves just several years earlier. The question should be: who are needed for the US economy? That can be an AG worker, a software engineeer, a professor of economics. The whole of the US should "profit" from immigration. And the US citizen that found a foreigner they want to bed, should be able to wed, and bring him/her in. Also a number of people persecuted should get chance to have a life in the US.

"Temporary financial gain" if I did not know you are an immigrant yourself I would be very upset by this insult - which it is.

The human instinct is to stay where one belongs.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 9](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273075428 "Jun 9, 2026, 12:40 AM")

So your la-la-land is that you deserve more to immigrate to US than the next person? Or you know what’s best for America?

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[Continue thread →](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273075428)

[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271980975 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:45 AM")

Nope. It looks more like you are doing the steering.

I just gave one example.

Program management in biotech is closer to traditional silicon valley stuff.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272000130 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:12 AM")

Ah, great example of gaslighting.

The difference of program management in biotech from other industries is, it requires PhD level of education in biology or equivalent in experiences. Otherwise, it would be project manager, which is at a lower level.

What is “traditional” SV stuff anyway? I hope you are not referring to Apple or MS.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272028411 "Jun 7, 2026, 6:13 AM")

Interesting that you don't seem to think H1B candidates can have PhDs.

Bye now. Too far off topic, and you have too many chips on your shoulder.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272044857 "Jun 7, 2026, 7:13 AM")

I had a PhD and went through the whole H1B, EB, GC, citizenship process.

What you have seems to be more than chips on your shoulder, but willful ignorance of history and reality.

Also, what's H1B "candidates" anyway? H1B is just one type of work visa tied to the job and have less strings attached than O1, J1 etc.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272262045 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:02 PM") Edited

H-1B is THE work visa. The O-1 is hard to get. (Although recently two women working on OnlyFans were issued this visa, and Mr. Epstein used it to bring in young women he fancied.) J-1 is a study/internship visa.

The issue is that an H-1B candidate is hired based on known qualities which fit the job in question, where "ordinary" people looking for a job are fobbed off by automated systems. If any, the employers should be blamed for going the easy way. Also, many people in high tech could be retrained but are not.

H-1Bs requested by companies are capped at 85,000 a year, of which 20,000 are reserved for foreigners with a US masters degree or higher. Employers in educational instiutions and not-for-profit research are exempt from the cap.

The number of Petitions for the capped H-1B's is many times larger than the available visas. Hence there is every year a lottery and the chance a Petition can move forward was 1 in 3. How the new requirements (e.g. forking over $ 100,000) will work out, or not, is yet to be seen.

(Info meant for those who started wondering.)

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272189354 "Jun 7, 2026, 12:37 PM")

Read the thread again. Then perhaps 'candidates' will make sense.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272192315 "Jun 7, 2026, 12:43 PM")

Not really. US government can reject and revoke H1B visa without explanation (nor does it owe anyone any explanation). It is not a job opening that you apply for. I think you have a basic misunderstanding of what immigration law is.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272310426 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:43 PM")

The initial question was about job openings, hence candidates.

You are the one meandering all over the furniture, which clearly made you lose the thread.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271976875 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:26 AM")

Most biotech have been propped up by "hot money", for lack of better words. And all the "hot money" are being drained by that "AI" pie in the sky now.

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[Michael Raffety](https://substack.com/profile/289483206-michael-raffety?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271597725 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:33 AM")

The government is running a very large deficit and plans to run a larger deficit, when they increase the defense budget by 50%. I would think the economy would show strong numbers so long as this massive budget deficit continues.

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[Patricia Tingley](https://substack.com/profile/27507234-patricia-tingley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271613002 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:05 AM")

Thank you for helping me understand what is-“going on.”

70 years ago, in a discuss with my Dad, he said, “The Stock Market is the Rich Man’s Game.”

This has helped understand what is going on & see how well you have presented our economy now.

And how it effects my life as retirement fund as well as my budget for the year.

It is so easy to 100% blame some one for and carry frustration & anger..

I’ve learned thru my lifetime experiences that careful planning, creating thinking, creative actions,

& doing with out…work!

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272271361 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:21 PM")

It would be OK of it was just a "rich man's game". But the game is being played with poor man's money.

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[Patricia Tingley](https://substack.com/profile/27507234-patricia-tingley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 10](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273785397 "Jun 10, 2026, 7:36 AM")

You are right! The past was a chess game and today a super monopoly involuntarily using our money too!

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[Jon Harrison](https://substack.com/profile/120424193-jon-harrison?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271607987 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:55 AM")

Right, until investors lose confidence in the ability or willingness of the US to keep paying its bills. Recall Hemingway's words about bankruptcy. Can happen to countries too.

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[Lisa P. Grantham](https://substack.com/profile/75583146-lisa-p-grantham?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271608090 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:55 AM")

I wonder if the numbers were seasonally adjusted. Most of the gains were in hospitality and construction, with significant job losses in higher paying sectors like finance and tech. While the overall number was good, the devil is in the details. It looks like we are trading high paying jobs for low wage jobs.

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271795249 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:32 PM")

AI may be hitting finance and tech.

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[Pam Birkenfeld](https://substack.com/profile/23310690-pam-birkenfeld?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271599006 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:36 AM")

Thanks so much for the comprehensive review of where things are. Very straightforward and helpful. And your common sense about what we should think about it all is keeping me on an even keel at least on this front, if not the political front.

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[EricA](https://substack.com/profile/141506413-erica?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271654580 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:28 AM")

Kevin Warsh side note. Anyone who takes an appointment by Donald Trump to anything cannot be taken seriously.

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[Nowaytofixthis](https://substack.com/profile/267125722-nowaytofixthis?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271598609 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:35 AM")

It's well-known that Wall Street is full of lefties that sell their stocks just to make Trump look bad.

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[Meighan Corbett](https://substack.com/profile/110973789-meighan-corbett?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271604313 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:47 AM")

HAHAHA

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[Jerry Kopensky](https://substack.com/profile/33962126-jerry-kopensky?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271593837 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:24 AM")

IMO the NFP data WAS corrupted by felon Trump. No way does the May data and the upward revision to April of that magnitude reconcile with the reality of the policies of this ABHORRENT regime. NO WAY.

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[LeonTrotsky3](https://substack.com/profile/383840275-leontrotsky3?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271604637 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:48 AM")

I agree, but the people who put Trump in power and keep him there are no less abhorrent than he is. I'm referring to the US electorate who, on any given day, still back him with 40% support. It's a rogue government and electorate.

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[John Arrighi](https://substack.com/profile/149679717-john-arrighi?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271619541 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:18 AM")

Sorry, but Paul is right, and other experts agree. This data may be wrong but it is NOT rigged. Paul is also right when he says folks who baselessly claim it IS rigged are only hurting Dems and giving cover to the Rs.

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[Bronwyn Fryer](https://substack.com/profile/7184217-bronwyn-fryer?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271607160 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:53 AM")

I don’t trust those job numbers. Trump fired the woman who was doing the job.

BTW, I freaking love “I fucking love Australia.” The writer is funny as hell and 1000% accurate. [https://substack.com/home/post/p-200849328](https://substack.com/home/post/p-200849328)

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[George Patterson](https://substack.com/profile/35450922-george-patterson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271717941 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:39 PM")

Thanks. Here's a Brit that does a good post as well - [https://www.youtube.com/@MallenBaker](https://www.youtube.com/@MallenBaker)

He posts about 5:00 PM Eastern Monday through Friday.

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[djw](https://substack.com/profile/143690308-djw?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271634884 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:49 AM")

Yep--I read IFLA every day right after I read Paul Krugman!

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[Bronwyn Fryer](https://substack.com/profile/7184217-bronwyn-fryer?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271665896 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:51 AM")

SOOOOOO funny!!!!!

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[Carolyn Herz](https://substack.com/profile/639187-carolyn-herz?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271608430 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:56 AM")

Thank you for that explanation. I live in Indianapolis, which has sought to make hosting major sporting events a significant driver of economic development. I have wondered how that will work out if so many people are struggling to pay for necessities. Tickets and travel to sporting events may become a luxury that many cannot afford. Yet this year, for the second year in a row, the Indianapolis 500 was sold out, which is the exception, rather than the rule. Other sporting events are also fairly well-attended. So, plenty of people have money to spend on non-essentials. It leads me to question what is going on underneath the macro numbers.

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[James McConnel](https://substack.com/profile/174916114-james-mcconnel?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271603057 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:44 AM")

I am hoping you will speak to the impact of the Musk IPO of next week, the relaxed way it has been permitted by adjusted stock market rules, and the automatic way pension other funds will buy into it. Yikes.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271734296 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:14 PM")

Yeah. It may not be as big a mess as some headlines imply, but I think some of the QQQ selloff is to get out before SpaceTwit is included.

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[George Patterson](https://substack.com/profile/35450922-george-patterson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271721381 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:46 PM")

The Musk IPO cannot be listed on the European stock exchanges. The powers that be over there feel that it is very much overvalued.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602762 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:44 AM")

A lot of job postings from employers might be fake, especially for big companies. My guess is, this "employer" survey result might be a combined result of company manipulations and the number-cooking skills of whoever got spared by DOGE.

"Surveys" are not legally binding, payroll is.

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[Philip Brown](https://substack.com/profile/352226076-philip-brown?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271611838 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:03 AM")

In regard to "job postings", I have seen reports that "international actors" (choose your flavour) are posting fake job vacancies on professional employment sites. The aim appears to be to harvest data that can be used for fraud or industrial espionage. If there is significant volume of fakes this could distort the apparent employment market. Trustworthy data is scarcer than Republican "integrity" these days.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271622990 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:25 AM")

Also, if the goal is to harvest data, Onlyfans would work much better than fake job postings…

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271797506 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:37 PM")

There are scams that start as job postings. I can’t recall the details now.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271979641 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:40 AM")

Similar to the old Nigerian type of scams. It is called "cat fishing" in internet age or "pig butchering" (杀猪盘）in Chinese. Human greed is as ancient as human criminality

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[Frau Katze](https://substack.com/profile/100295814-frau-katze?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271996885 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:58 AM")

Yes, I think that’s it. The internet is a big help with scams.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271621994 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:23 AM")

I don’t think it has anything to do with espionage.

It’s been a standard practice for years when big companies lay off people, they would allow employees to negotiate and stay on the payroll for a bit longer as part of the severance. The laid off employee needs health insurance before landing the next job, the company need to make sure the employee numbers satisfy both the wall street and those who survive the layoff.

Trust me, no entities need to “harvest” US employee data by posting fake jobs. They only need to buy the data from all the social media platforms if they even care.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271730395 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:05 PM")

Employment survey numbers are cross checked with payroll tax numbers.

[https://www.bls.gov/cew/](https://www.bls.gov/cew/)

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271954729 "Jun 7, 2026, 12:42 AM")

So they can backtrack, or waiting for public to forget.

That’s the reason Trump government (and/or SEC?) tries to change the requirement how often public-traded companies need to report their financials. If AI is so great, it would not be a burden for companies to report their numbers more frequently.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271963674 "Jun 7, 2026, 1:23 AM")

Just to be clear, the payroll numbers come from quarterly personal income tax, social security and Medicare payments from companies paid on behalf of every employee.

They are not optional and are very accurate.

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271964545 "Jun 7, 2026, 1:27 AM")

I know. I also think the number might become part of those “national secret” soon enough.

Revising history, especially numbers, is a must for building any totalitarian society.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271969176 "Jun 7, 2026, 1:50 AM")

Hah. Got it.

I doubt it, but it is certainly in line with their other policies.

Of course at least some states publish their similar data. It would be interesting to see Trump try to shut down California's data sites

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271976070 "Jun 7, 2026, 2:22 AM")

They won’t if they don’t need to anymore. Trump is just the useful idiot installed by Russia, Israel and the “tech bro” version of the proud “boys”.

Why do you think one bedroom apartment in SF cost $4000 now?

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272281338 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:41 PM") Edited

Apartment shortage? This is nothing new. When my husband was offered a job in the Bay area about 15 years ago we realized rent was almost too high to manage, buying a house impossible. In the end it did not happen (phew). In 2015 stories already appeared in the press about workers - many of them H-1Bs - sharing a dwelling, sleeping in bunk-beds ($1,200 p.p. and over)

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[C.A.R.E](https://substack.com/profile/308363743-care?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272506502 "Jun 8, 2026, 2:17 AM")

Not entirely. I lived in SF for a year long time ago. Loved every minute of it. It always has boom town feel. The city has limited spaces and offers tax breaks to big tech companies to stay afloat. Most people who work in SF actually lives outside SF.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272279449 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:38 PM")

I found that the number of tech jobs is seen as much higher than it is, because a lot of heead-hunters & hiring co.'s re-advertise the same job over and over.

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[Joseph Shedd](https://substack.com/profile/5679686-joseph-shedd?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271699237 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:59 PM")

Do the job reports distinguish between full-time jobs and part-time jobs? Do they distinguish between jobs paying a certain percentage above the poverty level and those that do not? If the unemployment rate (a measure of how many people don't have jobs and are looking for them) is steady, and real wages aren't climbing as fast as the rate of inflation, couldn't ALL these measures perhaps be reflections of already-employed people having to look for second and third jobs to pay their increasing bills?

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[Paul Topping](https://substack.com/profile/13275348-paul-topping?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271694071 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:48 PM")

Trump expressing surprise that the stock market went down is likely just another cynical ploy. He knows that people discount a negative event if it is perceived as an unexplained anomaly rather than a solid explained consequence. He doesn't want to talk about why the stock market went down, and he certainly doesn't want citizens thinking about it. Far better to claim that it's a mystery, should have gone up, so don't worry about it.

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[Robert Graham](https://substack.com/profile/345566435-robert-graham?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271692312 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:44 PM")

I greatly appreciate these highly readable analyses of this situation or pile of situations which must involve more complication and craziness than perhaps any other historical period. In my view, the only value that Trump and Trumpism can have , and it\`s a very important value, is a colossal warning to the world. It will no doubt yield plenty of lessons for anyone interested in learning. One of them is heavily underlined by the Trump, brexit, Orban , Bolissario, Farage; Putin parades of monstrous arrogance with supreme ignorance: It is perhaps the simplest and clearest lesson: never allow power to people with no scrap of humility. None of the above ( and I include Johnson , Gove and many others under the brexit umbrella) have ever exhibited the least sign of humility.

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[paddy ch](https://substack.com/profile/384233603-paddy-ch?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271686658 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:33 PM")

RE the job growth numbers: I saw that the most jobs added were in the hospitality industry. Could this be a temporary thing due to the World Cup?

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[Brent James](https://substack.com/profile/66185889-brent-james?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271873951 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:57 PM")

And seasonal hiring? I dunno.

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[Dave Posner](https://substack.com/profile/114273095-dave-posner?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271675119 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:09 PM")

OMG, was it obvious that I was rooting for Iran in the "war" and rooting for a recession in the economy? Am I a bad person?

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[Ricardo Stone](https://substack.com/profile/116376480-ricardo-stone?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271703734 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:08 PM")

No, you are just reaching for anything that will rid our nation of fascism.

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[Aurora Trischka](https://substack.com/profile/166843216-aurora-trischka?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271636141 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:51 AM")

We, especially those of us in the low-income bracket, have a negative view of the economy because every time we go to the grocery store, we have sticker-shock at the prices and are spending much more for the same amount of food. Now gas prices are adding to the pain. Some people are already going without, even if they are working two jobs because they have a long commute and are trying to feed a family.

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[Winston Smith London Oceania](https://substack.com/profile/308852488-winston-smith-london-oceania?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271626821 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:33 AM")

I'm about to go food shopping today. My budget gives me $42 to spend for the week. Yes, I blame Trumpkopf for it. Incidentally, 172,000 jobs for a month aren't brag worthy numbers, no matter what the Moron in Chief says.

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[James Jordan](https://substack.com/profile/23609638-james-jordan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271872068 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:51 PM")

Dr. K,

What worries me most right now isn’t a single jobs report or a week of market volatility: it’s the deeper imbalance in how we’re allocating the capital generated by the economy. The latest Social Security Trustees’ report makes clear that the trust funds are drifting toward imbalance, not because the system is flawed, but because we’ve refused for decades to make the modest, actuarially obvious adjustments that every advanced democracy routinely makes. We’re pretending scarcity where none is necessary.

At the same time, we’re pouring unprecedented sums into AI infrastructure: data centers, energy transmission upgrades, water‑cooled server farms, without any credible demonstration that these investments will generate returns commensurate with their cost.

I’ve spent a lifetime studying natural monopolies and the commons, and this feels like a familiar pattern: we underinvest in the systems that actually sustain broad prosperity and overinvest in speculative technologies whose benefits accrue narrowly and whose externalities are socialized.

The commons that matter; energy grids, water and sewage systems, transportation networks, street lighting, sidewalks, fire and public safety, public health, education, and yes, national defense, Social Security, Unemployment, and Medicare insurance are the backbone of a functioning society. They are "natural monopolies" that only a competent state can steward. When we neglect them, we erode the very conditions that make markets possible.

I’m also increasingly convinced that we need to revisit a version of universal national service, civilian or military, as a shared civic obligation. A four‑year term of service after high school or college would help rebuild social cohesion, expand the workforce in critical public sectors, and reconnect young Americans and their families to the idea that citizenship carries responsibilities, not just entitlements. Other democracies have done this with great success; we once understood it ourselves.

So yes, the monthly numbers matter. But the deeper issue is whether we still have the institutional capacity and the political will to invest in the commons that make a high standard of living possible. Right now, I’m not seeing that balance.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272309704 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:41 PM")

Many studies point out the negative consequences of the idea of mandatory service, especially for the lower classes. Children born in the well-to-do part of society will probably be excused for a variety of reasons. It would mean a gap between finishing High School and starting a study or learning a trade or starting a job. It can have a detrimental effect on lower-level employment because workers would be replaced by these "volunteers". This idea is floated regularly, all over the world. Most recently the French had it apparently - and decided against it.

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[John Jordan](https://substack.com/profile/15670203-john-jordan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271847432 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:42 PM")

One thing that doesn't get enough attention is how people now feel about the economy involves an implicit comparison to what it was like during and coming out of the pandemic. Yes, the pandemic was terrible for a lot of people. For others, it was not. In fact, it was unusually good. The federal government provided a safety net--especially with additive unemployment benefits--that produced something of a Europe-lite. Maybe for the first time, a lot of wage and salary earners had the luxury of choosing among plentiful jobs. The data indicates many used this luxury to change employers or, even more impactful, sectors. Combined with hiring coming out of the pandemic, this resulted in large wage/salary increases for many. (Changing jobs is the main way most people achieve significant income gains.) Maybe even as important, the unusually generous safety net and hiring environment allowed people to exercise agency and not experience the incredible stress that comes with losing and looking for a job. The end of that, the return to the normal rules of the "globally competitive workforce," had a much larger effect than many--especially economists--appreciate. I think it contributed to Trump's victory. There is one--or more--doctoral theses in this.

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[James Jordan](https://substack.com/profile/23609638-james-jordan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271882067 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:21 PM")

John, I like your analysis. I have been through several deep recessions and there were many really stupid conventions that concerned me: evictions, and repossessions of automobiles. and loss of the equity in homes due to foreclosures always seemed to be a flaw in our policies. It was stupid and tragic to see people with children living out of their cars during recessions, trying to keep their children in school.

Your thesis, "Maybe even as important, the unusually generous safety net and hiring environment (during covid) allowed people to exercise agency and not experience the incredible stress that comes with losing and looking for a job. The end of that, the return to the normal rules of the "globally competitive workforce," had a much larger effect than many--especially economists--appreciate.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272313228 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:49 PM")

Many people lose their house because of property taxes - that stay the same whether you have income or not. You are right that often it is the children that are most affected.

I found that fewer immigrants came to the U.S. during the early COVID years (2020–2021), which contributed to the shrinking labor pool and helps explain the surge in job openings.

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[chris lemon](https://substack.com/profile/8699641-chris-lemon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271811026 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:10 PM")

It seems like the economy is at the Wile E Coyote stage where he's treading air, and has just looked down.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271830427 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:57 PM") Edited

I've used another metaphor for a while now: The ecnomy feels like the Titanic, we struck an iceberg, the music keeps playing, meanwhile the water flows in.

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[chris lemon](https://substack.com/profile/8699641-chris-lemon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271860275 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:16 PM")

Quite, as one of the big bank CEOs commented about 2008 financial meltdown, we knew the party was over, but as long as the music kept playing we had to keep dancing.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272294351 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:09 PM")

The melt-down the big banks helped happen to occur. I once read that when too much money ends up with the ordinary people, an event is needed to vacuum it all back.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272338813 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:44 PM")

There is an unofficial financial term called "dumb money", which is money people have gotten and are investing with little effort and knowledge (as in "easy come, easy go"). The economy generally goes in cycles and once in a while it gets flushed, especially for dumb money.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272343504 "Jun 7, 2026, 5:55 PM")

I wonder if we are talking about the same. The money that ordinary people worked for and managed to save, was often used to down-pay a house.I lived in the Central Valley and there were streets where literally every house was for sale, bank-owned. People lost their house, their savings, and often later also their job. While Wall Street. was already doling out big bonuses again, for ordinary people the effects of the fin. crisis rippled on for a long time. Many people never recovered from the blow. I think it is a major reason why Mr. Trump was elected in 2016.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272352939 "Jun 7, 2026, 6:18 PM") Edited

I think we're talking about the same seen from different perspectives. You're talking about the consequences and I'm talking about the causes.

The financial meltdown in 2008 was mainly instigated due to loans given to people with poor credit ratings that were repackaged by the banks and then sold to other banks. Once the bubble burst everybody was affected as you described, but it was initially people who were given "dumb money" (dubious loans) that caused the consequences you're describing.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272376656 "Jun 7, 2026, 7:16 PM") Edited

Yes, agreed. However it was not the people who were given the dubious dumb money loans who caused it, it was the investors and bankers who pushed them into taking on those loans. Because for them it was extraordinarily profitable to pretend an AG worker barely making $25,000 a year could afford a $350,000 house, mortgaged - and basing a range of unregulated products on that incorrect and irresponsible assumption.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272678877 "Jun 8, 2026, 10:23 AM") Edited

Both caused it, the banks for lending to people that could most likely not afford to repay the loan and the banks for repackaging the subprime loans in bundles with AA+ loans. But also the lenders caused it, they shouldn't have taken the loans, even though being dumb is not illegal.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272898455 "Jun 8, 2026, 4:59 PM") Edited

We bought a house in Fresno in 2004. I had to fight for a 20% down/30 years fixed mortgage. "We have so much better mortgage products, how foolish not to profit from them!" Later on I discovered that selling us the "better product" would have netted the loan officer a siginificantly higher fee/bonus.

Numbers about income etc. were fibbed, it bordered on fraud and in some/many(?) cases, it probably was. (E.g. the guy with the mariachi-band photo.) None of the people who helped cause the misery were taken to task for what they did. None of the bankers ever had to re-pay some of their ill-gotten gains.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 9](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273067487 "Jun 9, 2026, 12:10 AM") Edited

If I understand you correctly, you were 60+ at the time when you got the loan. I can understand why you had to fight for it. The banks are less willing to give a loan to people of age.

Twentysome years ago I understood that banks and debt is not a lucky combination, so I have been debt free since then. One less concern.

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[Continue thread →](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273067487)

[Kenneth McBride](https://substack.com/profile/20783296-kenneth-mcbride?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271780625 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:58 PM")

Professor Krugman, is there going to be an exam on this discourse? 😊! “it’s hard to explain why people are quite as negative on the economy as they are” which I think, as myself, a reflection of their disgust of the dysfunctional incompetence and blatant criminal corruption of the MGA Republican Trump Project 2025 regime, at least causing me to dream of being in Canada instead of the dismal Christian Nationalist MAGA Trump America! Now, on to the June 14th UFC Freedom 250 martial arts event at the White House! Oh!

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[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271788508 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:16 PM")

_Comment removed_

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[Brent James](https://substack.com/profile/66185889-brent-james?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271873351 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:55 PM")

Ugly comment for a Canadian.

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272315817 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:54 PM") Edited

"If you move to another country the reason better not be unhappiness with your current situation. Your new home will have many annoying issues too." (Advice given in a manuel for emigrants.)

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[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272383474 "Jun 7, 2026, 7:33 PM") Edited

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272452387 "Jun 7, 2026, 10:44 PM")

When you immigrate into another country, work, pay taxes, contribute, you are allowed to point out the things you do not like. If you have an issue with what a person is telling you, just say so, and leave him/her be.

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[Brent James](https://substack.com/profile/66185889-brent-james?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272398226 "Jun 7, 2026, 8:11 PM")

And blocked…!

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[Mark Stave](https://substack.com/profile/88871674-mark-stave?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271763004 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:18 PM") Edited

Regarding Warsch; seems to me our good Dr Krugman forgets to factor something into his analysis as to which way Warsch wriggles.... Namely, which path will generate the most money for Warsch personally - enraging the Orange Pustule, or being the single least effective head of our largest non-governmental economic actor?

Its obvious eh? As long as Trump isn't enraged then being the outlier who tried to resist the QANON Swamp and got crushed but didn't lose his 'integrity'.. Will pay much, much more.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271832068 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:02 PM") Edited

I remember when people were still saying "checks and balances" to keep the bad thoughts away. Trump has now wiped his backside with checks and balances, so why not have a fully corrupted Fed?

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[Sibyl White](https://substack.com/profile/48095054-sibyl-white?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271668932 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:57 AM")

Hamburger just wrote to Substack’s CEO that longer essays ( precisely like Paul Krugman’s here) are the heart and soul of what brings ordinary citizens like me here. I listened carefully and thoughtfully to Krugman’s Saturday video with a mind to really listening. I think I get it. I shall now commend to you to listen, to not surf to Notes for algorithmic synthesis. Not the same thing, important to follow along with Krugman’s comments as he thinks through what he wants to explain. I’m feeling fortified by my continual turning to Substack before any other social media.

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[Marcus](https://substack.com/profile/123327495-marcus?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271655220 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:29 AM")

In other words, invest your money in FDIC-supported CDs or money markets and stay away from risk assets.

Regarding all of the Iran predictions already offered, I remind you of the wise words of Einstein, "We can not solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." Iran will end this war when it sees fit, and we don't understand their thinking on this issue. Be patient, Grasshoppers!

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[Rachel Corbett](https://substack.com/profile/291241232-rachel-corbett?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271633321 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:46 AM")

Canada has also had a jobs spurt which our economists are attributing almost entirely to ramping up hiring in hospitality sectors for the FIFA World Cup. Which means those jobs will soon go away.

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[Mary Salvia](https://substack.com/profile/214755209-mary-salvia?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271624801 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:29 AM")

Another level headed and completely rational analysis of the economic events of the day by Dr. Krugman. Only hard core MAGA types will have any issues with this, though I doubt any are subscribed to his Substack.

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[David Babson](https://substack.com/profile/117715063-david-babson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271621056 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:21 AM")

For Donald Trump, the only "reality" he recognizes is his emotional state, from moment to moment. You could see this most clearly during the first year of the COVID-19 Epidemic. Trump rebranded COVID-19 as the "China Virus," which absolved him, in his mind, from any responsibility for it, and so he stopped dealing with the epidemic, after securing funding for vaccine development. He left it up to Joe Biden to figure out how to get the vaccines distributed to Americans. Since, to Trump, the pandemic was China's fault, the crisis was over, as far as he was concerned. The virus didn't get the memo, and more than a million Americans died.

So, the economic fact that a good jobs report can make the stock market fall because investors fear that the Fed may not cut interest rates at Donald Trump's command annoys THE Donald. He rage-tweets/truths against this reality at 3:00 AM (figure of speech; I don't know the exact time, but Kalshi would probably give the best odds on some time in the small hours), and Trump feels better. End of another crisis.

The sad thing is, Donald Trump probably felt as bad, for as short a time, as he did about the deaths of a million+ Americans from COVID-19. When your recognition of reality can last for only a minute, or less, that's what happens.

Too bad that the rest of us can't escape reality, economic or epidemic, as easily as Donald Trump can.

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[BTAM Master](https://substack.com/profile/41333369-btam-master?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271614575 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:08 AM")

Thank you for an excellent podcast...and thank you for the transcription. I'm ADHD so I can't sit still long enough for most podcasts, but I can follow the printed page.

A few thoughts:

1) "There are not that many people who benefit from high stock prices, but these are people with a lot of money and a lot of spending power. And if they go out and spend more, that boosts the economy. So that’s a sort of force that operates in opposition to the effects of the tariffs."

==\> This sounds like "trickle down" economics

2) Kinda off topic: how about if Iran says: "Fertilizer can pass through to all countries except Israel and the US." Iran would look like humanitarian heroes since they'd alleviate a global famine started by Israel and the US...and the PR disaster for the US if it either continued - or relinquished - the blockade.

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271732262 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:10 PM")

Economic benefits to the wealthy do in fact trickle down.

They just don't trickle as far as Republicans claim.

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[Jerry Kopensky](https://substack.com/profile/33962126-jerry-kopensky?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271608273 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:55 AM")

How can you not suspect that the NFP data WAS manipulated and corrupted by felon Trump?

There is no way NFP + previous month upward revision of that magnitude reconcile with the economic policies of the ABHORRENT Trump regime.

The bond market knows this, which constrained the uptick on the UST10 yield.

PS: I will never refer to him as Chair Warsh!

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[CJ in SF](https://substack.com/profile/18767331-cj-in-sf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271733022 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:11 PM")

[https://www.bls.gov/cew/](https://www.bls.gov/cew/)

There is actual payroll data involved in the process to correct previous estimates.

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[Bob Roberts](https://substack.com/profile/256463018-bob-roberts?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271607122 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:53 AM")

It's reasonable to expect the jobs number to revised in coming weeks; I can't shake the sense that there is still a bias to an initial report to the upside because Trump doesn't seem to understand the economics of a high jobs print right now and neither do his supporters - they must be placated, if only temporarily. They won't care about much except 'number goes up'.

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[GonzoDon](https://substack.com/profile/113460668-gonzodon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271727668 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:00 PM")

The latest job numbers released this week were accompanied by an INCREASE in the job numbers reported for the previous two months.

Which would seem to undermine your hypothesis.

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[Bob Roberts](https://substack.com/profile/256463018-bob-roberts?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271737124 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:20 PM")

Hardly; the bias is always UP.

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[GonzoDon](https://substack.com/profile/113460668-gonzodon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271740185 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:27 PM") Edited

Except your "always" doesn't include the last two months, is what you're saying.

I'm a data guy -- show me the actual statistics and I'll believe you. My casual observation has been that the numbers seem to be randomly too high or too low, but I've not noted a consistent bias -- either under Biden or Trump. I could be wrong.

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[Bob Roberts](https://substack.com/profile/256463018-bob-roberts?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271744376 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:37 PM")

Two UP adjustments in a row, with another adjustment pending. I'll wait.

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[GonzoDon](https://substack.com/profile/113460668-gonzodon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271766968 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:27 PM")

Ok, now I’m confused.

You said “the bias is always UP”.

Which means that later “corrections” to the job data, when they do finally come, would have to always be DOWN.

But — they’re NOT always down. (As the last two months demonstrate).

Your comments are self-contradictory.

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[Jon Harrison](https://substack.com/profile/120424193-jon-harrison?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271606759 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:52 AM")

So I think it's well known that the unemployment rate can stay the same even when the job numbers go up (or down). That's like something from Econ 101, isn't it?

Some interesting journalism has appeared in the last day or so stating the world is finding ways around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and that supply difficulties are probably overstated. There seems to be truth in this, or wouldn't economies in East Asia, like Vietnam, basically be at a standstill? Would love to see you weigh in on this. In any case the price of oil will stay elevated for some time, even if supply is okay. It's called price-gouging, and the companies and countries involved will ride that wave until they can't anymore.

The other thing that's interesting is what will the Fed do? I don't think Warsh will have enough committee members on his side to lower rates. So will Trump throw Warsh overboard like he does anyone who fails him who isn't part of his family? And if by chance he does get his way on rates, will that mean we repeat the Turkish experience? Thoughts on this aspect, professor?

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[Mark Silverstone](https://substack.com/profile/182345543-mark-silverstone?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271606099 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:51 AM")

Thanks for the erudite, if a bit rambling, perspective. I think the take-away is that there are a lot of "balls-in-the-air" at the moment, economically and politically, and we just have to wait to see when and where they land. Market volatility seems extreme at the moment. Having Trump in charge guarantees it on its own, even without the apparently contradictory indicators. Calls for tax cuts for just about everybody and for increased spending on just about everything doesn't help.

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[Barbara](https://substack.com/profile/302563028-barbara?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272188836 "Jun 7, 2026, 12:36 PM")

Any experienced investor could see that stocks were too high by historical standards. I have a somewhat aggressive tech sector mutual fund. I sold shares at an all-time high about a week ago, missing the tippy-top high by about $3, but still gaining close to $40 per share. I'll take that win any time. I will probably invest the proceeds in bond funds, not so much because of the high interest rate, though that's a good reason, but because I need to balance my holdings and I really have too much in stocks right now.

As for the wider economy, I was shocked this week to pay $6 to have one key made at a big box store--I live in the South, where prices are usually lower. When I expressed surprise, the older gentleman who was making my key said, "Thank our president for that--tariffs." I suspect he's at least partly right, though that metal also has to be trucked to a factory, probably in another country, made into blanks, shipped to the US and then trucked to warehouses and stores, all of which costs more due to higher diesel and gas prices as well as tariffs.

It's almost like Trump intentionally does everything exactly backwards but then demands that he get his way--tariffs, harsh immigration tactics, unnecessary war and so much more.

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[Stan Hendrix](https://substack.com/profile/20608855-stan-hendrix?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271898982 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:15 PM") Edited

I wonder if inflationary expectations have already set in driving people to stock up now knowing that prices will only go up thereby driving some short-term economic activity. I know inflationary expectations as well as possible shortages of goods due to tariffs have influenced me a bit. If so I agree that the Fed will act real soon.

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[Martha S Peyton](https://substack.com/profile/202546001-martha-s-peyton?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271882300 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:22 PM") Edited

But the job gains by sector are stll troubling. Healthcare and home health aides especially are hard to fill and low paid but with high demand. Restaurants are driven by high income folks. Local government job growth isn’t a sign of vibrancy. Special trades construction is data centers. Story is still AI/data centers and K-growth.

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[Lisa Heard](https://substack.com/profile/612489-lisa-heard?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271872118 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:51 PM")

Trump doesn't pay taxes so why should Americans? STOP PAYING YOUR TAXES!

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[antoinette uiterdijk](https://substack.com/profile/15816120-antoinette-uiterdijk?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272299628 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:20 PM") Edited

Mr. Trump get away with it - the average USAmerican will not.

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[William Coulter](https://substack.com/profile/322445983-william-coulter?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271745721 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:39 PM")

“…it’s hard to explain why people are quite as negative on the economy as they are, except that it they have a kind of cumulative feeling that the system is rigged and that the people in charge are not on their side, which at this point is very much true.”

Um… and has been true for a very long time (although living on the gilded isle of Manhattan apparently impairs one’s ability to see the obvious explanation of why people are so negative).

The word ‘Republican’ doesn’t lend itself to a childish play on words like the word ‘Democrat’, so let’s just call working class republicans who thought Trump would actually work to their benefit misguided.

But let’s recycle ‘Dumocrats’ and apply it anyone other than the 1% who think the Democrats are going to work for their benefit. It’s like a sociology professor told me fifty years ago, the debate among the powerful is whether to keep their foot continuously and firmly on the neck of the working class or to occasionally let up a little bit and give them a bit of hope.

It was Clinton, after all, who gave us the North American Free Capital Act, which very much put Labor, being infinitely less mobile than capital, at a huge disadvantage. Obama gave us a little temporary relief with the ACA while long-term corporate lawyer and short-term Attorney General Eric Holder was letting the bandits responsible for the Great Financial Crisis pocket their ill-gotten gains.

Between infrequent and inadequate adjustments to the minimum wage, the advent of the gig economy and the complete success of the upward wealth transfer envisioned in the Powell memo working class Americans are in a very bad place. If you can’t make sense of that using your favorite statistics then your favorite statistics are likely old and broken. The economy has moved on, the statistics haven’t. I say this as someone who collected data at the Indiana University Center for Survey Research and also worked on three different Fed/State programs with the US Department of Labor.

I recognize that the core of BLS is not yet politicized, but we also need to recognize that survey fatigue and low staffing at the BLS are real problems.

Also, I’m a bit surprised that Dr. K didn’t note that the largest part of the increases were in hospitality and local government, which gave other economists pause.

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[James Hart](https://substack.com/profile/20612887-james-hart?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271706553 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:14 PM")

Are the recent good job reports a result of baby boomers leaving jobs and being replaced by new/younger workers? Which seems like a wash. What do you think?

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[Barbara](https://substack.com/profile/28188540-barbara?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271682067 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:23 PM")

One big concern I read about just once quite a while ago, and never since, is that several of the Fed governors' terms expire in the fairly near future and that Trump will get to appoint new ones and thereby essentially control the Fed.

I hope Dr. Krugman will address this concern if he sees the comment. His current Fed outlook is rosier than mine!

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[Joanna Weinberger](https://substack.com/profile/11285243-joanna-weinberger?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271676067 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:11 PM")

It's time to focus on the prescient abilities of MAGA and recognize that MAGA investors such as Elon Musk already know what's going to happen. The rise of simple smart apps for betting on horse racing and the growth of prediction markets for larger bets to supplement the usual financial markets allows MAGA households to remain 100% invested in absolutely certain bets.

MAGA investors do not need clean and accurate government reports. Information from the Fed or the Bureau of Labor Statistics is absolutely redundant and only assists human investors. That financial reporting is, to MAGA, a form of waste, fraud, and abuse. We should not expect accuracy going forward.

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[Gloria J. Maloney](https://substack.com/profile/4686791-gloria-j-maloney?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271680195 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:19 PM")

Good point.

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[Jim Sontag](https://substack.com/profile/15112592-jim-sontag?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271673502 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:06 PM")

I loved this garden chat. How can you not love the good professor?

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[GSF](https://substack.com/profile/108994862-gsf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271669172 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:57 AM")

Thanks for your insights, Paul.

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[Hugh Briggs III](https://substack.com/profile/74740598-hugh-briggs-iii?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271667367 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:54 AM")

I rarely post here, and people can understand that differently. An anecdote that I hope gives you a smile. Back when I taught Economics, around the time when it looked as though the Internet would have all the brightest available to all, a co-worker asked me what I would do when Paul Krugman was available over the Internet to replace me. It took me maybe two seconds to smile and say “Something else.” Very well done. You and Ms. Wells stay well.

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[lynda schuler](https://substack.com/profile/199625995-lynda-schuler?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271660123 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:39 AM")

WSJ touting factory jobs expanding, but what I read is the job growth was lopsided in hospitality and leisure, health care and local government.

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[Bryan T](https://substack.com/profile/312560874-bryan-t?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271649905 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:19 AM")

I trust the economic reports out of this regime less than I trust numbers out of China.

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[Gary Davidson](https://substack.com/profile/392948612-gary-davidson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271647905 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:15 AM")

On the jobs front; it might be worth noting that Canada added some 88,000 jobs in May with a population approximately a tenth of America’s. A little bit of a perspective on the hype around the latest US job figure of 172,000. Looks like Canada is producing jobs approximately five times as fast as the US.

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[Peter](https://substack.com/profile/5194653-peter?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271636348 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:52 AM")

Trump went to Wisconsin to talk to farmers. He lied to their faces about diesel, gas, fertilizer, crop sales and all the rest and they didn't react. Was the crowd so well screened that no real farmers were allowed in the room? Given real conditions on the farm, real farmers might just have stormed the stage.

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[Bob Adolph](https://substack.com/profile/41239453-bob-adolph?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271626143 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:32 AM")

Thank you for your dose of sanity in our insane world.

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[MidwestGal](https://substack.com/profile/122930381-midwestgal?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271624316 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:28 AM")

Krugman always leaves us with probabilities and, maybe solutions. He is as confused, at times, as we are! Appreciate his “might and should”.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271835490 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:10 PM") Edited

Well, nobody actually can tell the future, but Krugman has an idea as how the winds blow.

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[Scott](https://substack.com/profile/222459149-scott?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271617991 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:15 AM")

Why do we believe these job reports?

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[Charles](https://substack.com/profile/366008313-charles?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271614215 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:08 AM")

It is a conundrum. The fact is the economy is chugging along very nicely kept aloft by consumer spending by the well off like me who have made tons of money in the markets and well paid professionals. This includes you Paul. We didn't notice the gas price increase although many lower income folks will have done. Inflation is going to be honest around for a while. Hormuz is not going to reopen. Interest rates have to go up. Warsh btw is not the Trump stooge he is portrayed as. He wanted the job so didn't want to queer the pitch with his public statements. Ignore any statements from Trump or his stooges like Bessent. They are nonsense.

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[LeonTrotsky3](https://substack.com/profile/383840275-leontrotsky3?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602922 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:44 AM")

How much more bigotry does the US have to show to say it is officially a rogue state, unfit for a democracy?

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[Mike](https://substack.com/profile/111095488-mike?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602863 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:44 AM")

Stop citing prediction markets as a proxy for anything. It’s like using DraftKings to assess a professional sports team.

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[Meighan Corbett](https://substack.com/profile/110973789-meighan-corbett?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271604705 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:48 AM")

Agreed but it does show sentiment. Even if it's a bunch of bros in their parents' basements.

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[James Moseley](https://substack.com/profile/370463414-james-moseley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602639 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:43 AM")

Also, even skeptical traders will jump as soon as Trump tweets some super positive lie about Iran. Nearly 70-80% of the stock market’s daily trade volume is automated. These algorithms are programmed to immediately buy and sell based on what the president says. So a trader knows two things 1) Trump is lying 2) a lot of passive and automated trades are about to move in the direction of Trump’s tweet and you’d be a fool not to follow that volume. Business doesn’t believe Trump. They are just thinking short term greed.

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[Martin Nijkamp](https://substack.com/profile/161626358-martin-nijkamp?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271601471 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:41 AM")

Trump forgot about the Dilbert cartoon: "firing people is like printing money" (meaning stock prices going up). So the reverse is: more jobs and you are going to burn money. It is/was a very cynical joke, but very real if you have ever been involved in a reorganisation prior to a takeover, just to make the numbers look nicer.

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[Matthew Hembree](https://substack.com/profile/117745868-matthew-hembree?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271599051 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:36 AM")

How do the job creation numbers and the "first time unemployment claim" numbers compare? We've been bouncing around 210k new claims per week for the whole year ( [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WMWc](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WMWc)) so a month with 172k new jobs doesn't seem like it would be that impactful. Seems like that might explain the stubbornly persistent unemployment rate? (me: not economist)

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[CAN FICTION HELP US THRIVE?](https://substack.com/profile/327371871-can-fiction-help-us-thrive?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 12](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/275019698 "Jun 12, 2026, 9:43 AM")

I published a new essay, “Is Religion the Only Exception?”

The essay asks whether people actually stand by faith when something consequential is at stake, or whether, when life becomes serious enough, they quietly return to evidence.

[https://canfictionhelpusthrive.substack.com/p/is-religion-the-only-exception?r=5ewpr3&utm\_medium=ios](https://canfictionhelpusthrive.substack.com/p/is-religion-the-only-exception?r=5ewpr3&utm_medium=ios)

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[Mike Andoscia](https://substack.com/profile/22224102-mike-andoscia?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 10](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273885169 "Jun 10, 2026, 10:48 AM")

Just a non-economic aside...I'm intrigued by that vine in the background. What is that?

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[Mr. No Knowthing](https://substack.com/profile/29408039-mr-no-knowthing?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/273001934 "Jun 8, 2026, 8:57 PM")

You look like a hobo. If you are going to post videos, figure how to look good, not necessarily a suit and tie in this era…

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[Declan](https://substack.com/profile/957946-declan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272962675 "Jun 8, 2026, 7:18 PM")

How bout this notion??? Is the catastrophe we thought would happen, not happening cause the world has/is switching to renewable which would alleviate the strain????

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[Luuk Knippenberg](https://substack.com/profile/330330104-luuk-knippenberg?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272865938 "Jun 8, 2026, 3:56 PM")

The American economy looks strong because the world is still trapped inside its infrastructure. Beneath the surface, growth is shifting into dependent sectors, equity markets rest on a narrow valuation bubble, and the dollar survives because, for now, fleeing America is still riskier than fleeing into it.

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[Ace Thelin](https://substack.com/profile/84293587-ace-thelin?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272680092 "Jun 8, 2026, 10:25 AM")

Nobody should listen to this platform imperialist

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[Alpha Metrics](https://substack.com/profile/108305482-alpha-metrics?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272668791 "Jun 8, 2026, 10:07 AM")

I appreciate the measured analysis, but I think you're underplaying how much the June 6th market action was fundamentally about the discount rate resetting, not just "interest rates matter for stocks." When 10-year yields spike and rate hike probabilities jump from near-zero to 70% in a single session, that's not just making bonds more attractive—it's violently repricing the entire forward curve beneath every duration-sensitive asset. The fact that energy and financials closed green while semis cratered 10% isn't just "future profits getting discounted more." It's a classic rotation out of long-duration growth and into value when the Fed's reaction function completely resets. The 172K print didn't just kill rate cuts—it erased the entire 2026 easing path the market had priced in .

I'd also push back gently on the "Kevin Warsh is trapped" framing. The real constraint isn't FOMC votes—it's that the macro data has left him with no intellectual cover whatsoever. When employment is accelerating and inflation is running hot from oil shocks, advocating for cuts isn't just politically motivated—it's professionally indefensible. The interesting question isn't whether he caves to Trump or maintains credibility. It's whether this administration even understands that central bank independence isn't a norm you can just override when the data doesn't cooperate.

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[Marylou](https://substack.com/profile/111554071-marylou?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 8](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272511866 "Jun 8, 2026, 2:40 AM")

2 things I look for in job numbers:

(1) how many jobs created are part time vs full time.

(2) what will the jobs numbers be after correction.

and if I expect item (2) to be down, then I'll make adjustments accordingly now. I may make less on the stock market but there you go. that's just me of course.

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[Tresa](https://substack.com/profile/16922073-tresa?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272420439 "Jun 7, 2026, 9:12 PM")

How do we be certain that the employment numbers are valid? I don’t trust anything coming out of this administration

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[martin.english@gmail.com](https://substack.com/profile/15150005-martinenglishgmailcom?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272420364 "Jun 7, 2026, 9:12 PM")

"the system is rigged and that the people in charge are not on their side, which at this point is very much true."

This has always been true, but the past, the Billionaires have been "farming" the 99%, as opposed to now where the perception (and maybe the reality) is that they are "killing the milk cow".

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[Woody Rea](https://substack.com/profile/107070215-woody-rea?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272297748 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:16 PM")

Get a decent microphone! You are washed out and garbled! Put your dog in another roomer Boomer

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[Henry Stahl](https://substack.com/profile/22956036-henry-stahl?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272293026 "Jun 7, 2026, 4:06 PM")

Could it be that official, registered jobs have now been created to fill positions that were previously held by undocumented immigrant workers?

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[Victoria Pursell](https://substack.com/profile/62154095-victoria-pursell?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272154579 "Jun 7, 2026, 11:27 AM")

Does the jobs report show what categories of jobs are growing? Are they low paying or high paying jobs?

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[Doug Barton](https://substack.com/profile/43921060-doug-barton?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272127693 "Jun 7, 2026, 10:34 AM")

In a future post will you please take on the steel man case for the deflationary effects of technology adoption. Or at least how we might disentangle its effect from the supply shock of Hormuz, tariffs, immigration, etc. I know we'd all learn something from THAT discussion that I don’t learn with the strawman dismissal of the case for fed interest rate cuts. Tyler Cowen calls productivity plan A (with no plan B) for reversing crushing debt.

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[David Allen](https://substack.com/profile/332143302-david-allen?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272085210 "Jun 7, 2026, 9:02 AM")

Great read! Thanks Paul. More like this!

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[Jacqueline Gargiulo](https://substack.com/profile/7336007-jacqueline-gargiulo?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272083800 "Jun 7, 2026, 8:59 AM") Edited

What are all the mechanisms or avenues used to estimate the job market? I was informed that is strictly by calls to industry owners and executives? I can't imagine that's it, and I would like to be able to respond with the real story when such a charge is made again. Please and thank you.

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[Ron Masters](https://substack.com/profile/285748094-ron-masters?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272076680 "Jun 7, 2026, 8:42 AM")

Some guy said that getting a second job counts as job creation. Maybe people picking up pre-existing part-time or gig work openings to make ends meet looks like new jobs to households and no policy change to employers?

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[Jacques Yan](https://substack.com/profile/330961077-jacques-yan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272058328 "Jun 7, 2026, 7:54 AM")

i am an exporter from China, i am concerned if the USD can appreciate aganst RMB recently. Mr PAUL.

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[K. R.](https://substack.com/profile/43585725-k-r?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/272031878 "Jun 7, 2026, 6:26 AM")

Always happy to hear it spelled out how the current administration is sabotaging itself in so many ways.

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[Blairnj](https://substack.com/profile/360810580-blairnj?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 7](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271988609 "Jun 7, 2026, 3:21 AM")

Krugman displays an incredible amount of knowledge on a variety of subjects. Very impressive and accurate. I would do a minor tweak for clarity. All companies’ value depend on profits. “Value” companies have current profits that aren’t projected to grow rapidly and are similar to a bond. “Growth” stocks have minimal profits now which are projected to grow dramatically in the future. The further profits are off in the future, the more interest rates which are used to discount future profits affect the valuation.

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[Stefan Paskell](https://substack.com/profile/56486685-stefan-paskell?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271935128 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:20 PM")

I wonder if this message will get through. Paul’s substack has been slowed to a crawl and this video will not play for more than a few seconds. Other sites work normally. It’s possible the site, or Paul’s substack, is being corrupted

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[Fred W. Cox](https://substack.com/profile/82410562-fred-w-cox?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271920558 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:28 PM")

Thank you Paul for your very insightful and knowledgeable discussions. 👍🏻👏🏻 We, your viewers, are very appreciative.

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[Patricia Wilson](https://substack.com/profile/17987158-patricia-wilson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271920144 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:27 PM")

Thank you, Paul. I liked the porch talk. Do it again. Smiles.

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[Larry](https://substack.com/profile/116056632-larry?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271899026 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:15 PM")

I must have misunderstood prior columns, I thought you were predicting a crash, as soon as the last ship with oil from the gulf arrived?

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[Jenna bognar](https://substack.com/profile/501193632-jenna-bognar?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271898496 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:13 PM")

Thank u. The job market announcement really confused me. Trump will really use this!!

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[Raven Meyer](https://substack.com/profile/321244898-raven-meyer?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271894200 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:59 PM")

We know we are going down, that’s why!

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[LA Lizbeth](https://substack.com/profile/7309194-la-lizbeth?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271886722 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:36 PM")

Great explanations, thank you.

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[yasa uenaka](https://substack.com/profile/283038847-yasa-uenaka?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271884515 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:29 PM")

It was brief but I felt it covered most things I was interested in at the time of watching. And the ending was great.

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[Ricardo Gomez](https://substack.com/profile/33297510-ricardo-gomez?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271883682 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:27 PM")

Uncertainty. Muddy waters. Quagmire?

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[Sunnygirl58](https://substack.com/profile/295846771-sunnygirl58?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271877952 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:09 PM")

I don’t know if I trust the job numbers. Just saying.

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[George Hess](https://substack.com/profile/24599412-george-hess?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271877248 "Jun 6, 2026, 8:07 PM")

Thank you. Your rational analysis is much needed and appreciated

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[Brent James](https://substack.com/profile/66185889-brent-james?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271872417 "Jun 6, 2026, 7:52 PM")

I saw news somewhere on Substack yesterday that the EU was outlawing American AI in critical infrastructure in response to the US withdrawing significant nato military assets. That would explain a big semiconductor selloff. True? Hell I don’t have any idea.

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[Ghost Dansing](https://substack.com/profile/392758113-ghost-dansing?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271851451 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:52 PM")

Thank you. I'm glad you're still here speaking economics.

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[Bill Kinney](https://substack.com/profile/94948440-bill-kinney?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271850863 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:51 PM")

Hi Paul,

As a recovering Resource Economist, I should be more current on the machinations of OPEC, and I see from a quick scan that some dispute their effectiveness on prices,; don't most members still hold back some output? If there is any appreciable amount held off the market, wouldn't that imply that there is at least some "cushion" in supply? (I saw recently that Iraq is planning to increase output). If so, then why are traders or whoever talking about how we are close to exhausting available supply? Can't the Saudis, UAR, Iran and Iraq all still loosen their supplies?

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[Jim Jubak](https://substack.com/profile/38772281-jim-jubak?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271847491 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:42 PM")

Don’’t forget the weather. The U.S. farm belt is headed into a drought. El Nino--perhaps a super El Nino--is about to inflict really bad things on farmers from Vietnam to Brazil. The result would be higher food prices. I don’t see this possibility in any of the economic forecasts. YET.

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[Made Simple for MAGA](https://substack.com/profile/19919796-made-simple-for-maga?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271843483 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:31 PM")

Oh That's Rich suggests (if I understood correctly) that these jobs numbers are camouflaging tech job buyouts that have not yet ripened into unemployment figured. Thoughts?

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[Sun](https://substack.com/profile/210291749-sun?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271835766 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:11 PM")

Head and shoulders above the crowd!

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[Klm808150](https://substack.com/profile/21928182-klm808150?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271833539 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:05 PM")

Do we really believe those numbers?

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[Turtlegirl4💙🇺🇦🇨🇦🏳️‍🌈☮️](https://substack.com/profile/79308110-turtlegirl4?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271820348 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:32 PM")

My small take on the review of the economy, I gladly left Amazon, Home Depot and others to protest the evil owners. Private equity ruined Joann and others. Now that time is moving on, there are some things I need to replace around the house and there are very little options. Also, since we are retired, I worry about spending any money on extras. This is one of the damages amongst many that this administration has done to people. Why would any company come to America to start a business when this administration just kills business except for the billionaires. So depressing.

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[Kathy](https://substack.com/profile/13538615-kathy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271817099 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:24 PM")

There are so many errors in the printed version it seems to come from a first grader! Run on sentances, words repeated out of sentance order etc. If this is AI driven, get a real person!

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[PS Curtis](https://substack.com/profile/12660667-ps-curtis?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271808094 "Jun 6, 2026, 5:02 PM") Edited

My take is that the selloff in tech stocks on Friday is less related to inflation and interest rate concerns and more related to portfolio managers proactively selling off non-SpaceX Nasdaq 100 holdings in anticipation of forced reallocation in Nasdaq 100-based index funds after they learned of S&P's decision not to follow Nasdaq's rule change on fast inclusion of mega-cap IPO stocks in their indices. If this is so, it should be pretty much a one-time event.

That said, the Iran war fiasco effects on the world economy have only begun to be felt. I agree with some previous comments that Iran senses that they have trump over a barrel and will play him in a manner similar to the hostage crisis that ended Carter's presidency. If only Ted Koppel were available to cover it on a daily basis. Nightline anyone?

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[GregAbdul](https://substack.com/profile/465232646-gregabdul?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271786710 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:12 PM")

Thank you for answering my question Professor. I will try to cool it, but on our side, many are saying cooler heads is the problem. "The best numbers they can do considering personnel problems" seems like the right answer. It's not adding up. So there is "noise," that is inflating hiring numbers. You can't say doubting the BLS is not helping, but Trump is a white racist liar. You expect me to trust his government?

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[Stan Dirks](https://substack.com/profile/20358235-stan-dirks?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271785709 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:10 PM")

In your commentary on predicting the future, you should describe efficient market theory and chaos theory, which together form a sound basis not only for investment strategies, but also for a view of our economic future.

I would also like to see some discussion of whether the inflationary effect of extraneous (noneconomic) events, such as the effect of a war on prices, should be taken into account by the Fed in setting interest rates. Shouldn’t the Fed be allowed to assume that the stupid war will end?

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[Sonja](https://substack.com/profile/1276932-sonja?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271784082 "Jun 6, 2026, 4:06 PM")

love this assessment!

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[Joan Panzella](https://substack.com/profile/560814-joan-panzella?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271773221 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:41 PM")

Thanks Prof. Krugman. Your always welcomed short & long chats never cease to be, for me, enlightening and clever. So happy to know you may be dropping more in the near future! Again, thanks for your input during these interesting times! ‘Appreciated! 🙏🙂👍

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[Bob Unferth](https://substack.com/profile/96727938-bob-unferth?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271772577 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:40 PM")

I haven't heard Paul comment on the magnitude of the effects of developing alternatives to products flowing (or not flowing) through the straits. Things like

\> Saudi (and others?) finding ways to send their products in other ways, pipelines...

\> increased exports s by countries like the US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, Venezuela...

\> increases in the use, not only of renewables (wind, solar, geothernal), but, also, nuclear, coal, biomass...

\> changing the mix of energy use by increasing EV sales and other such changes not only in energy, but in fertilizer and helium

\> conservation in all its multiple forms

\> other ideas I haven't thought of - people are very ingenious.

As time goes on these approaches will have increasing effects, which will be increasingly long term.

Long term is getting to be increasing real as it appears the straits will have been closed for at least a third of a year (maybe two-thirds), and many long term adjustments are already taking place. Will that play into Iran's calulation? What will be the long term economic and other effects on the Gulf oil states?

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[Arbitrot](https://substack.com/profile/15225476-arbitrot?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271769288 "Jun 6, 2026, 3:32 PM")

One is led to wonder whether Trump gets a peek at the jobs report before the public does, and if he does whether that gets him on the phone to Don Junior or Eric giving them the inside skinny before the rest of us. And then whether they are dumb enough to falsely anticipate a rise in the stock market. I think there is a little doubt that Trump, given the opportunity, would try to game the market, and that both he and his sons are dumb enough to make the analytical mistake that Krugman is talking about. The only question is whether he gets a peek at the numbers before the rest of us.

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[Chicagoshirl](https://substack.com/profile/36180132-chicagoshirl?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271751231 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:52 PM")

Thanks for thinking of us and sending a Sat video even though you're still obviously traveling. Looks like you've gotten some good sun in the past few days. Happy for you and Robin.

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[Padma Wick](https://substack.com/profile/12222662-padma-wick?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271749235 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:47 PM")

Your video comments are my favorite. Please don't apologizer that format.

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[kathleen mccann](https://substack.com/profile/316887212-kathleen-mccann?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271747105 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:43 PM")

Glad to know the economy as a whole isn’t facing a flame out that just happened to recipients of USAid and other vital programs for people on the economic margins and I don’t know if it’s the right way to describe the pressure voting rights are under I guess it’s a different conversation so good news on the economic front

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[John D Warnock](https://substack.com/profile/398716559-john-d-warnock?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271744727 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:37 PM")

...more trump malaise. It is going to be a long hot summer.

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[ADIL SAYEED](https://substack.com/profile/27797225-adil-sayeed?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271743933 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:36 PM")

I am well aware of Danish saying that "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". Nevertheless, I will venture to guess that the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) will rise on Friday the 12th in the preliminary release of June ICS. My thinking is that ICS has fallen steadily since Trump attacked Iran in February and gas prices started rising. ICS down Feb. to May for all sub-groups -- Democrats, independents AND Republicans.

But, the national-average gas price peaked on May 21 and is down -8% since.

The inflation news next week will be bad in the Consumer Price Index release for May coming out on Wednesday the 10th, but that's too late to affect preliminary ICS for June. Even if there's an uptick, ICS will still be very low. The 2025 vibecession with ICS falling even when the economic news showed continued stability in the principal data may well have been due to most Americans having "some sense that we have crazy erratic leadership", as Professor Krugman so aptly describes Trumponomics.

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[Emily Barker](https://substack.com/profile/22662227-emily-barker?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271736024 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:18 PM")

I think that the Space X IPO is showing people another way that the system is rigged against them. As you know, Space X has been fast-tracked into the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes (although not the S&P), which will force many index funds to buy the stock of a giant, unprofitable company made up of disparate businesses—only some of which have proven business models—under Musk's complete control. Inclusion in the indexes will help buoy the price of Space X stock.

Personally, I am absolutely furious that my retirement savings in index funds are being used to make the world's richest man even richer. Judging from comments that I've seen on social media recently, I'm not alone. People invest in index funds because they prefer boring, logical, long-term investments. Not the latest meme stock.

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[Lee](https://substack.com/profile/222866671-lee?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271728720 "Jun 6, 2026, 2:02 PM")

A wonky comment. It's time to retire the NFP( Non-farm payroll) measure. When this measure was adopted the number and seasonality of farm labor was large and significant there fore able to skew labor statistics. Today this assumption no longer holds so lets put a stake through this zombies heart (mixed metaphore, I failed zombie hunting 101). However I know farming which is now at most 2% of GDP and almost insignificant in terms of employment due to productivity. Keeping the NFP makes about as much sense as a non-amusement park payroll reasoning that such business are by nature highly cyclical. Lets drop the NFP and the myth that somehow owning, managing or having a job at a farm business is any different from any other firm that has employees.

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[Peter Storandt](https://substack.com/profile/12659952-peter-storandt?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271725933 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:56 PM")

I haven't looked it up or asked my AI assistant, but I seem to recall hearing routinely after many strong jobs reports that "stocks fell." Investors don't make more money when more jobs are available.

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[James Harold McClure](https://substack.com/profile/27375754-james-harold-mcclure?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271718572 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:40 PM")

"If you’re puzzled by how we can have strong job growth and no change in the unemployment rate, the answer is that these are two different surveys. The unemployment rate is based on a survey of households. The job creation number is based on a survey of employers."

There's another explanation as you know. If the employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate both rise, then we can see higher employment in the household survey with no fall in the unemployment rate. Then again this was a very small part of this month's story.

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[Ann Marie Joyce](https://substack.com/profile/168299884-ann-marie-joyce?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271716193 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:35 PM") Edited

So who or what is NYTs cozying up to . Read on one of my many substacks. Forget which one

“When Biden’s economy added 266,000 jobs in May 2021, the Times headline read “Job Growth Slowed in April, Muddling Expectations.” Today, for 172,000 jobs, a smaller number, the headline reads “172,000 Jobs Added in May as U.S. Labor Market Upswing Continues,” with the subheader touting “vigorous, strong” signs for the economy. The double standard is not subtle.”

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[Ann Feild](https://substack.com/profile/50931615-ann-feild?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271715194 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:33 PM")

Your head’s worth two. Or more

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[Greg Movsesyan](https://substack.com/profile/88866551-greg-movsesyan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271710236 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:22 PM")

The lack of credibility in the current jobs report is justified by the 'corrections' that increased the reported jobs numbers of several previous months under Trump's analysts. What are the corresponding statistical evaluations of jobs numbers by independent evaluations?

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[Dennis Allshouse](https://substack.com/profile/300974065-dennis-allshouse?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271704456 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:10 PM")

You look tired, man. Vaca wasn’t restful? I hope you’re allright.

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[Ed](https://substack.com/profile/17492793-ed?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271703715 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:08 PM")

Paul, I read almost every word and save 90% to my political files. But, watching you talk, I keep thinking "Paul, get your glasses frames straightened!"

Keep on thinking and speculating about what can be fixed in our country.

We need more ideas about what can be done about the Zombies.

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[Rita Koselka](https://substack.com/profile/18855590-rita-koselka?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271695210 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:50 PM")

We miss you!

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[Judy](https://substack.com/profile/244047126-judy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271694329 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:49 PM")

This is why Paul Krugman is such a treasure. Straight talk about the complex interactions that cause one thing to go down when another thing goes up. Expert information from inside the machine, about how two things that we might think should be linked are actually tracked by different types of surveys and therefore won't move in lock-step. A clear-eyed view about how many people are involved in setting the interest rate. No just-follow-this-one-simple-indicator advice. Trump may think he is supremely powerful, but he can't order up the economy he wants and expect it to happen. So worth the read.

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[Scott Richards](https://substack.com/profile/225882873-scott-richards?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271681058 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:21 PM")

Regarding oil. Dan Dicker was on Chris Hayes show a couple of days ago and made the point that it is very rational to not go long on oil because things can change so quickly that it essentially impossible to ride it out and make a profit. But when the shortage squeeze happens, the price will increase very quickly. Like gasoline could increase one dollar per week per gallon. And that’s why the big oils guys have their hair on fire, they see what’s coming.

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[Zeke](https://substack.com/profile/120081783-zeke?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271680759 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:21 PM")

Ok, so heads of households are holding employment, while they've kicked their high school and college kids out of the house to get jobs at coffee shops and landscapers for the summer. Have you been in a mall lately? lots of younger kids working in stores. And Trump has never not perceived himself as a victim.

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[Hari Prasad](https://substack.com/profile/146350562-hari-prasad?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271666266 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:51 AM")

If America today is not a police state, what is it? See the links below:

[https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/49/6/901/164764/Misguided-Brushes-of-a-Pen-Continue-to-Dismantle](https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/49/6/901/164764/Misguided-Brushes-of-a-Pen-Continue-to-Dismantle)

[https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/05/well/ada-conference-diabetes-trump.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/05/well/ada-conference-diabetes-trump.html)

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271665957 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:51 AM")

Mr. Krugman, isn't it so that NASDAQ went down due to fears that interest rates could go up, which would make the financing of AI become more expensive?

Until now the prevailing perspective was that Trump will get his lower interest rates.

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[Kenneth Fry](https://substack.com/profile/33516168-kenneth-fry?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271661577 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:42 AM")

The better than expected jobs report is a lie. Do not forget that this is out of the Trump Administration which cannot be trusted in anything. Trump ordered his lackeys in the Labor Department, as he has fired all of the previous analysts, to provide him with a good jobs report, and they did. Just ask a young person right now if it is easy to get a decent job. Who are you going the believe? Trump, or your lying eyes? Do NOT be fooled.

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[Bill Brown](https://substack.com/profile/163449200-bill-brown?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271660353 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:40 AM")

I love these short talks Paul gives. I almost feel like he's talking to me across a table. I just don't get to ask questions. And he didn't off me a coffee :(

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[Deborah Barnum](https://substack.com/profile/680955-deborah-barnum?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271660254 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:40 AM")

The negativity many people feel about the economy stems from the obscene graft and extortion blatantly and flagrantly exhibited by the djt family.

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[Peter M](https://substack.com/profile/103876888-peter-m?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271660253 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:40 AM")

Thanks for your clear, insightful overview of the macro‑economic, political, and sentiment trends behind the jobs report, stagnant wages, inflation, rate-setting and the stock market. It was easy to follow for someone who’s read your posts, yet still delivered a few “pass the popcorn” moments. You don't need to bring in conspiracies or sinister strategists— just clear analysis with a sense of humor that made for a perfect Saturday morning read.

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[Morey G](https://substack.com/profile/112224487-morey-g?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271657758 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:35 AM")

Does Wall Street care that much about connecting job numbers to future interest rates, or is it simpler to see that Wall Street just plain hates job increases as a drag on profits? The market always goes up on news of mass layoffs and drops on reports of increased hiring. In this case, are many of these jobs seasonal gearing up for a summer travel season that may fall flat?

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[Mitchell Ignatius Baker](https://substack.com/profile/110805152-mitchell-ignatius-baker?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271654637 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:28 AM")

This was incredibly insightful! Do you have any book reccs on the job market and its connection to greater economic policy?

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[Jess Behrens](https://substack.com/profile/97109005-jess-behrens?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271652205 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:23 AM")

Donald is the art collector who yells at the painting he just bought for not being 'beautiful, bigly gorgeous' enough because the girl he's trying to date is married and not interested in him at all, let alone cheating.

The two don't go together, his painting & her insistence on fidelity, but he has linked them in his head. So he destroys the painting.

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[Jerry Goff](https://substack.com/profile/117206415-jerry-goff?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271650099 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:19 AM")

Haha. I love the phrase "catastrophically bad leadership". Thanks for providing some sanity into the public discourse. It's much appreciated here in Evergreen, Colorado.

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[Strut Macpherson](https://substack.com/profile/119187090-strut-macpherson?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271649682 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:18 AM")

The business cycle, combined with the highest participation in the stock market ever, is bailing out Trump politically right now.

Trump had nothing to do with this business cycle, and neither did Biden. This is just dumb luck for Trump.

What is sad is that \*any\* president would be enjoying a huge amount of unchecked power right now since the economy is so good for so many. The US has gotten incredibly unlucky here that it's happened coinciding with a fascist.

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[Deborah Barnum](https://substack.com/profile/680955-deborah-barnum?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271661725 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:43 AM")

The economy is not so good for so many. The economy is good for so few.

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[Andrew Hornick](https://substack.com/profile/302238477-andrew-hornick?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271643167 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:05 AM")

Thank you for your continued counsel and analysis. With the markets seeming to hang on to every news report, it’s hard to not think of the DJIA any more than a combination of insider trading and betting at the track.

Been retired for over 20 years and been doing my own investing to ensure we can cover all our costs for a long time. But time catches up and we have turned it all over to a daughter in a financial wealth management firm now. Money-wise we rest easier. But we share the worry about all the political and social issues with you.

One question about the jobs report however. How does it handle second and thrid jobs taken on in a family due to the increase in family costs?

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[John Sperry](https://substack.com/profile/218924015-john-sperry?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271642906 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:05 AM")

I appreciate the gentle nudge in the direction that the Markets are more long term measures of effectiveness of policy and less so about what happens on any particular day. It’s hard to time a market influenced by authoritarian lunatics and their sycophantic minions. Trump is so fixated on stocks now, and less on the lasting damage to the economy [et.al](http://et.al/)., that he has perpetrated.

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[Jeff Gordon](https://substack.com/profile/127703891-jeff-gordon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271641791 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:02 AM")

Could be that jobs report is history and stock market is future dealing with expectations

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[Paul Danaher](https://substack.com/profile/98624667-paul-danaher?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271641636 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:02 AM")

I just saw a lede claiming that the boost in hiring is due to preparations for the World Cup.

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[JOHN YANKEE 083 Vanport.ac](https://substack.com/profile/325843361-john-yankee-083-vanportac?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271641624 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:02 AM")

Initial economic data could be a sketch as best, and especially with the reduction in resources available to the officials to do their work properly, the revision which take place a month or so later is my go to on statistics, job openings is a rather difficult matter to gauge on the floor here, a sign post of “position available” in local magazines or posters outside a retailer may not translate into new employment opportunities, wages as stated here continue to be a depressing factor, imagine the standard situation where the employees left their post due to the wages being unable to pay for high gasoline price or inflated grocer bills, when the employers release their position on the market, how much could the employers make up? A significant raise for the new employment opportunities?? Not really, the wage will continue to stagnate, and those who verify the information will still have to juggle with the wage level, quite often the position is left unfilled for a whole quarter, especially in the service industry. This is why the revision of both jobs numbers and GDP growth matters, it’s either a confirmation/busting of the initial good news.

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[Tom Michl](https://substack.com/profile/96062201-tom-michl?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271640927 "Jun 6, 2026, 11:01 AM")

There is an alternative explanation for the jobs vs unemployment rate disconnect. The latter reflects labor force participation.

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[Jeff Fulmer](https://substack.com/profile/27073097-jeff-fulmer?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271640179 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:59 AM")

When inventories fall below 50%, that's when traders take notice. They start hoarding and bidding prices higher. Around $115/bl, we'll start to see credit leading down. At this point, recovery is still possible, but given the geopolitical situation, unlikely. When demand destruction kicks in, yields rise, and credit goes soft. That's the irreversible tipping point. Thus far, IMO, markets haven't properly priced in risk because Donald Trump has a remarkable ability to placate traders, but at some point his cards have to hit the table.

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[Nancy Brun](https://substack.com/profile/96935553-nancy-brun?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271639463 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:58 AM")

I am curious about the jobs reports. How much of job growth is in the low wage sector and how much in other sectors? Just numbers doesn’t tell me much.

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[Greg Stubbs](https://substack.com/profile/48952140-greg-stubbs?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271637056 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:53 AM")

I'm wondering why you didn't mention immigration as a factor in the latest Jobs report. Aren't there fewer immigrants job-hunting or unavailable as they are in prison or left the US? Does less competition have some influence? On a lighter note, maybe various Washington DC beautification projects hype the job numbers - Ballroom, Arch, Guilding, Reflective pool.

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[Don Stoneman](https://substack.com/profile/259568871-don-stoneman?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271633685 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:46 AM")

Re:137,000 new jobs. That means there are 137,000 persons on probation at their work who would be the first to go when the economy goes to hell when oil reserves run out and gas and diesel prices go to new heights. Have a nice day.

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[Charlie Maddaus](https://substack.com/profile/38798622-charlie-maddaus?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271630313 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:40 AM")

"So there are three things happening." Trump tariffs, AI and\_\_\_. Is it oil market fluctuation? You lost me on the third!

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[Fred C. Dobbs](https://substack.com/profile/48925387-fred-c-dobbs?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271625760 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:31 AM")

Understanding, let alone controlling, a very complex system with a huge time constant is truly a Herculean task. On the plus side it's pretty hard to be proven wrong.

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[Mark Leicester](https://substack.com/profile/205135670-mark-leicester?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271625530 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:30 AM")

Thanks, Paul, for this edifying explanation.

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[Jerry Wagner](https://substack.com/profile/49561896-jerry-wagner?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271625003 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:29 AM") Edited

Trumps incessant, grotesque antics are a putrid froth floating on top of the ocean of media (dis)-information. His obvious purpose is to distract, confuse, exploit and dominate, certainly not to enlighten. His administration policies are stalling US participation in the widely distributed economic growth of other countries pursuing rapid renewable energy electrification, led by China and Europe. The effects of this in the US are somewhat offset by enormous AI spending, including new electrical generation capacity. But that's all industrial tier infrastructure, with marginal benefit to all the communities of typical residential and small business utility rate payers. To illustrate the contrast:

China has established the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) charging network, totaling over 21 million charging points. This reflects a nearly 48% year-over-year growth, widening a massive gap with the United States (~200,000 public stations) and the European Union (~910,000 public chargers). You can't expect rapid adoption of EVs (transportation electrification) without providing readily accessible, cheap EV charging infrastructure. France and South Korea have already mandated construction of solar parking lot canopy Virtual Power Plants at ALL existing lots larger than 80 spaces, nationwide, within 3 to 5 years, largest lots first. That's community tier infrastructure. And the parking lot owners get entirely new income from 25-year airspace leases on their previously non-profit parking lots.

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[Norm Spier](https://substack.com/profile/58567152-norm-spier?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271624119 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:27 AM") Edited

Off the topic of today, and related to the important topic of the lapsed ACA expanded subsidies that happened 1/1/26.

There is, finally, a visible progression of an expected propagandic response (falsely indicating large coverage drops are mainly due to the administration's successful cracking down on ACA enrolment fraud).

(Note: I had actually made a post about the delay in progression of that response in a joking fashion the other day, involving a Moe, Larry, Curly, and Shemp, here: [https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-has-given-up/comment/269839013](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-has-given-up/comment/269839013) ,

however, with yesterday's Washington Post Editorial involving the "Paragon Health Institute" [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/06/05/aca-enrollment-fraud-is-worst-states-that-didnt-expand-medicaid/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/06/05/aca-enrollment-fraud-is-worst-states-that-didnt-expand-medicaid/) the the propagandistic response has apparently unstuck itself.)

Background:

Trump and the Republicans made the ACA expanded subsidies lapse on 1/1/26, and data is starting to roll in that about 3 to 5 million of the roughly 24 million who had ACA on-exchange coverage n 2025 will wind up losing coverage.

As well, information has been leaked that CMS knows about the losses, and was preparing a propagandistic response, indicating falsely that the coverage drops are mostly due to the administration's successful cracking down on ACA fraud. (Further, Charles Gaba caught that some data usually released in the past on coverage numbers has not been released.)

(The information sources on this summarized in a comment earlier on Krugman: [https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/unlocked-repost-curing-us-health-0b3/comment/266503150](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/unlocked-repost-curing-us-health-0b3/comment/266503150) .)

And then, catching a rather obscure New York Times story, I think I caught the propagandistic response starting, involving Dr. Oz and associates.

(As in this comment on Bernstein: [https://econjared.substack.com/p/why-are-people-so-damn-mad/comment/261555717](https://econjared.substack.com/p/why-are-people-so-damn-mad/comment/261555717) ; yes, my comments can be kind of rabbit holes, as are the two linked to!)

But then, the puzzlement. I could detect no further propagandistic response.

But then, the Washington Post editorial.

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/06/05/aca-enrollment-fraud-is-worst-states-that-didnt-expand-medicaid/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/06/05/aca-enrollment-fraud-is-worst-states-that-didnt-expand-medicaid/)

I have to analyze the new Paragon report it links to with more care.

Since some are behind a paywall on the WP, let me give the main quotes, with the key links:

"A new report (links to WP article: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/02/conservative-group-alleges-6-million-were-fraudulently-enrolled-aca/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/02/conservative-group-alleges-6-million-were-fraudulently-enrolled-aca/) ) estimates that 6 million people are improperly enrolled in health coverage through the Affordable Care Act, costing taxpayers $25 billion annually. The scale of the fraud might seem implausible, but the evidence supporting it is compelling."

...

"The Paragon Health Institute is a conservative think tank founded by Brian Blase, who served as a White House health care adviser during President Donald Trump’s first term. Paragon’s report ( [https://paragoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/securepdfs/2026/06/The\_Persistent\_Obamacare\_Enrollment\_Fraud\_RELEASE\_V1.pdf](https://paragoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/securepdfs/2026/06/The_Persistent_Obamacare_Enrollment_Fraud_RELEASE_V1.pdf) ) on improper ACA enrollment, co-written by Blase and four others, is neither anti-immigrant fearmongering nor partisan rage bait. In fact, it paints red states in the worst light.

The five states with the highest estimates of improper enrollees (Florida, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina) all voted for Trump in 2024. The report says the incentives are strongest for enrollment fraud in states that did not expand Medicaid under the ACA, which tend to be red states."

...

"Here’s how the fraud works: The federal government provides subsidies up to the full premium for health coverage bought on the ACA exchanges for people with incomes between 100 to 150 percent of the federal poverty line. Unscrupulous intermediaries, such as brokers and agents, lie about the income or existence of applicants, who are then improperly approved for subsidies that go directly from the federal government to insurers. Those intermediaries receive commissions for signing up these phantom “customers.”Paragon researchers used Census Bureau data on the number of adults making between 100 to 150 percent of the federal poverty line in each state, minus the number of people covered by Medicare or Medicaid, to estimate the maximum number who could be eligible for the largest ACA subsidies. They found that the number of people who signed up for ACA coverage in the 2026 open enrollment window exceeded the maximum eligible population in 28 states, totaling 6.2 million improper enrollees nationwide.

Florida, where the scam seems to have been scaled most lucratively, had more than 3 million exchange enrollments in 2026 despite an estimated eligible population of 636,000. Thirteen states had enrollments in excess of 200 percent of the estimated eligible population.

The exact nature of the fraud can take many forms. Sometimes intermediaries sign up real people without their knowledge. Sometimes individuals misrepresent their income to qualify for subsidies, which the federal government did too little to punish for too long. Sometimes intermediaries enroll people already receiving coverage through Medicaid in duplicate coverage through the ACA. Sometimes they fabricate applications entirely.

Fabricated applications and applications submitted without a person’s knowledge are best for insurers, since fake people or people who don’t know they have coverage never file claims. The insurers, which deny any wrongdoing, get all the government subsidies with none of the costs. Previous Paragon research ( [https://paragoninstitute.org/paragon-prognosis/the-rise-of-phantom-obamacare-enrollees-biden-covid-credits-drive-massive-increase-in-individual-market-enrollees-with-no-medical-claims/](https://paragoninstitute.org/paragon-prognosis/the-rise-of-phantom-obamacare-enrollees-biden-covid-credits-drive-massive-increase-in-individual-market-enrollees-with-no-medical-claims/) ) has found that 40 percent of individual market patients had zero claims in 2024, far higher than the 15 to 25 percent norm in ACA exchanges before the expanded subsidies."

--

So, really, I have to go through the new Paragon report.

From prior comments of mine that I linked to, if you trace through, you can find that Paragon's analysis last year, showing vast fraud due to "phantom enrollees", was questioned by major organizations with large technical staffs, and, as well, other conservative analysts.

And, as well, that it produced a graph that I'm pretty sure is erroneous, used by both John Thune and Mike Johnson, to justify not extending the ACA expanded subsidies. (Based on an erroneous cost-growth finding.)

One can see an issue with the Paragon research and recommendations even in just the WP quoted text. The fraud problem is worse in states which did not expand Medicaid.

Well, of course! You give people with an income below 100% of the Federal Poverty Level no legal option to be health insured unless they drop themselves to dirt poor in both income and assets to qualify for traditional Medicaid, and, duh, some will try cheating, and put their income over 100% of FPL to be health insured! (That is precisely what Medicaid non-expansion does. Again, duh!)

How Paragon and Republicans can not recommend that all states that have not expanded Medicaid do so, to repair both the incredibly inequity, and the incentive to fraud, is hard to fathom.

(This kind of thing is what makes it pretty clear to me that many policy analysts, Ph.D. in econ or not, are not smart enough to handle the problems we expect them to be able to handle!)

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[Michael Williams](https://substack.com/profile/43111979-michael-williams?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271623520 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:26 AM")

Thanks.

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[dave Wdowiak](https://substack.com/profile/31880489-dave-wdowiak?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271622880 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:25 AM")

much the same for the last several months, what worries me is the international bank limiting withdraws to 5%. Friday June 5th 2026

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[John Arrighi](https://substack.com/profile/149679717-john-arrighi?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271622604 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:24 AM")

Thank you for an insightful and surprisingly simple analysis of a lot of data that seems to confuse a lot of "experts." The only thing I would have liked to have seen was a dive into the sectors of the economy that saw job growth versus those that saw job losses and what that means. Health care of course was in the big growth category.

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[Jack Trawick](https://substack.com/profile/60835714-jack-trawick?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271622374 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:24 AM")

Thank for your wise and cogent argument. Steady as she goes, despite foolish and extremely unsteady leadership. What I fear is some catastrophe akin to the 2020 pandemic, except now with our fate in the hands of inept ideologues.

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[Anthony Winter](https://substack.com/profile/302735291-anthony-winter?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271621302 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:22 AM")

Many thanks!!

This was very informative and covered everything economic that I've been considering lately!

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[Colin Peter Leach](https://substack.com/profile/25297743-colin-peter-leach?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271616369 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:12 AM")

A very good discussion. Full of ambiguity and nuance. The complete opposite of what is being said by this administration (Hassert for example).

An analogy is weather forecasting. The driving influences are somewhat understood, but if anyone tells you exactly when it will rain in 3 days time ignore them.

But there is also a clear parallel too. The Trump administration is planning to dismantle the Ocean Observatories Initiative. This will potentially significantly worsen our capability to understand what will happen with the weather (I hope we are not in the same position as the residents of Galveston, Tx on Sept 6 1900, i.e. in the dark).

In the financial world we need clear (as accurate as possible) data such that we can then make informed decisions and take mitigations when we understand our data is less than perfect.

Again, thanks for the discussion.

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[Jeffrey L Kaufman](https://substack.com/profile/133974752-jeffrey-l-kaufman?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271615980 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:11 AM")

Adam Tooze posted a table today with governmental bond rates, and the US is very high in rate. So one question is whether that high rate reflects the huge debt of the US, its current credit worthiness, or whether it is a matter of generating profits to bond holders? Do those rates immediately relate to the housing issue in the US?

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[Edmund Clingan](https://substack.com/profile/306831483-edmund-clingan?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271614827 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:09 AM") Edited

Freaky indeed. Stocks, especially tech stocks, down. Bonds down. Bitcoin has lost half of its value. It seemed that money was being pulled from everything. Yet the dollar index rose.

A report on Bloomberg from unnamed US intelligence sources said that about a thousand vessels have transited the Persian Gulf since the start of the war. I suppose most of them were leaving since who would risk sending their ship in where it could be trapped for fifty days? A report from Al Jazeera a few days ago said Iranian authorities had cleared twenty-seven ships in a day. Goods from a growing number of countries are getting out if Iran allows it.

We are burning through our oil inventory at an alarming rate as no one in the USA urges (much less mandates) conservation. Mr. Chapman, Senior VP Exxon, has warned that the company expects to raise prices in late June. JP Morgan report on inventories suggested there would be "stress" on the oil system by late June and a "critical level" by late September. This seems confirmed by the Energy Dept's releases on the SPR suggesting that if we keep drawing at the current rate, we will hit minimum operating level in 15 weeks.

It is hazardous to extrapolate from one bad trading week. But I suggest that attention be paid to the capital shortage problems of the Gulf States. These are close-held secrets, but it would be consistent if the wealth funds are selling their holdings in crypto, bonds, and high-flying stocks, but not cashing the dollars into their fixed-rate currencies. People are discussing the shortages of oil, natural gas, plastics, helium, and fertilizer but not yet considering the implications of an investment shortage.

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[Susan Landgraf](https://substack.com/profile/18958340-susan-landgraf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271614418 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:08 AM")

Professor, That was an excellent sharing of the workings of the US economy at this point in time. I would ask that you do similar talks when you feel there are new facts to illuminate. Thank you.

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[jim maher](https://substack.com/profile/56491891-jim-maher?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271613846 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:07 AM")

Dr. Paul Krugman,

You are great expert about many things but please try to limit background noise on your videos. Thanks, Jim Maher

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[Jack Leveler](https://substack.com/profile/622777-jack-leveler?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271613541 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:06 AM")

Why hasn't Vought rigged or attempted to rig the Bureau of Labor Statistics? I mean, come on, he would if he could and he is the Director of the Office of Management and Budget? I mean, why would it be obvious, as you say, if they had tampered with the numbers?

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[Susan Landgraf](https://substack.com/profile/18958340-susan-landgraf?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271612276 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:03 AM")

Professor, that was a wonderful overview of the US economy. Thank you so much ..

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[Mark Wegman](https://substack.com/profile/43587756-mark-wegman?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271611511 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:02 AM")

Isn't the oil situation a coming catastrophe? World oil supplies down 20%, with the reserves that have buffered the situation being pulled down and hitting bottom in the July/August time frame seems like it will have a big impact. Some countries, e.g. Japan and China have bigger reserves, but the strategic petroleum reserve runs out soon. At least one of three things have to happen, 1) Gas and other prices have to get painful enough to cause people around the world to drive 20% less, maybe $10/gallon, 2) Congress passes a law preventing the export of US oil, in violation of the Republican supports in the oil industry and Republican principles 3) Trump almost immediately strikes a deal with Iran in time for tankers to get through the Strait and reach their destinations before the crisis hits.

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[Bames Jond](https://substack.com/profile/507057910-bames-jond?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271837567 "Jun 6, 2026, 6:16 PM") Edited

Yes, the world is basically driving 20% on fumes that are temporarily replaced by whatever reserves are available. When reserves hit a critical minimum some will have to live without gas or cough up substantially more dollars.

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[GonzoDon](https://substack.com/profile/113460668-gonzodon?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271724720 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:53 PM") Edited

The longer that world oil supplies remain tight, and prices elevated, the faster the world will make its pivot away from ICE vehicles to EVs, accelerate development of solar and wind power as alternatives, and (one would hope) improve public transit options for its citizens.

For these reasons, I am one of a minority that doesn't see tight world oil supplies and elevated petroleum prices as an entirely bad thing. Yes, this creates new economic burdens for us all -- especially those families already struggling to make ends meet from one month to the next. But my wellspring of sympathy has run out for those who:

(1) buy oversized, gas-guzzling SUVs not because they need one, but because they 'want' one (I'd estimate 2/3 of SUV buyers in the United States);

(2) choose to move to non-walkable, non-bikeable, strictly residential, sprawling suburban neighborhoods poorly served by public transit ... and then complain about "having" to spend so much money on gasoline ... while they vote against taxes for public transit they never use ...

(3) those people who are absolutely livid, LIVID about having to pay an additional $1.50/gallon for gas this year ... but not so livid that they will actually slow their driving velocity by 10-15 mph (e,g., matching the speed limit), in spite of the fact that would substantially improve their fuel economy. (That would be inconvenient.)

We are simply not taking our fossil fuel addiction seriously in the United States. Maybe another three months of tight oil supplies will help us take it more seriously.

But I doubt it. Once the Straight is re-opened, it will be business as usual.

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[Laurie](https://substack.com/profile/11297221-laurie?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271611132 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:01 AM")

This is an excellent explanation of what is happening. I do root for a total meltdown for political reasons, and this helps me understand why that is not preferred. Consumer sentiment will remain low and that's enough. (By the way, I take part in the Michigan survey and I'm anxious for my next opportunity to share my views.)

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[Frank L](https://substack.com/profile/2493446-frank-l?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271610522 "Jun 6, 2026, 10:00 AM")

One possible source of job growth I don’t see mentioned is blowback against LLMs. I’ve seen several articles suggesting that over the last quarter or three, a lot of firms jumped on the Ai bandwagon and fired a lot of their supposedly surplus staff. Then they found that AI didn’t replace humans, and now they’re restaffing. If this is the case, we should see job growth stalling in the next few months, and a lot of negativity around the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX.

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[Ellen Murphy](https://substack.com/profile/1675140-ellen-murphy?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271608919 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:57 AM")

Great analysis of the current situation. I could listen to you for hours.

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[Gail Stewart-Iles](https://substack.com/profile/10882543-gail-stewart-iles?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271607553 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:54 AM")

Thank you for the clear explanation, including the unknowns and uncertainties.

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[Brian](https://substack.com/profile/426802916-brian?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271604054 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:46 AM")

You are Wildly valuable. While not an institution, your bellweather this AM is vital to those of us who do not move in IRL circles that know what's going on. Start cultivating your replacement? It would annoy the crap out of the powers that be if there was an 'institutional expectation that holds the line, prevents us all from being overwhelmed by AI slop. Thank you.

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[Scenarica](https://substack.com/profile/482879427-scenarica?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602717 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:44 AM")

Is the 70% rate hike probability self-defeating? Markets pricing in the hike are already doing the tightening, yields up, dollar stronger, NASDAQ off 4% in a single session. That reprices risk across the board without the Fed actually touching anything.

There's a real scenario, maybe 35% odds, where the hike expectation does enough of the work on its own that by December the data no longer justifies it. The economy cools just enough from financial conditions tightening themselves that the Fed gets the outcome it wanted without firing the shot.

Which would be the most Warsh-friendly outcome imaginable, come to think of it.

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[DJ Chicago Cook](https://substack.com/profile/289079619-dj-chicago-cook?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271602349 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:43 AM") Edited

it's interesting that the Fed behavior is predictable and based on data. Perhaps our Supreme Court should be structured like this.

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[Erv](https://substack.com/profile/379708399-erv?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271600195 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:38 AM")

W

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[Erv](https://substack.com/profile/379708399-erv?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271600192 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:38 AM")

W

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[Mitch](https://substack.com/profile/207515172-mitch?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271598738 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:35 AM")

What would the declaration be if these numbers came in below expectations- "fake," "phony," or "rigged" 🤪

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[James Moseley](https://substack.com/profile/370463414-james-moseley?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271598413 "Jun 6, 2026, 9:34 AM")

[https://substack.com/@jamesmoseley1/note/c-271598103?r=64kbee&utm\_medium=ios&utm\_source=notes-share-action](https://substack.com/@jamesmoseley1/note/c-271598103?r=64kbee&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action)

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Comment deleted

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271672067 "Jun 6, 2026, 12:03 PM")

_Comment deleted_

[ADIL SAYEED](https://substack.com/profile/27797225-adil-sayeed?utm_source=substack-feed-item)

[Jun 6](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/comments-on-a-freaky-friday/comment/271715834 "Jun 6, 2026, 1:34 PM")

I had to smile yesterday when Trump reacted to stock prices going down by complaining: “Too much emphasis is placed on inflation.” That's not what we heard from candidate Trump in 2024.

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