Forecasting AI Futures

A blog for forecasting analyses on AI, focusing on risks and what to do about them.

By Alvin Ånestrand

· Launched a year ago

Forecasting AI Futures

Over Eight Months of Progress in Two: Analyzing the Mythos Preview Capability Jump

Is this the start of an even faster trend in AI development?

May 7•Alvin Ånestrand

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LatestTopDiscussions

Will AI Progress Accelerate or Slow Down?

Projecting METR Time Horizons

Mar 16•Alvin Ånestrand

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The Dawn of AI Scheming

The Complete Picture of Coherent AI Deception

Feb 26•Alvin Ånestrand

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Can Hardware Save Us from Software?

Timelines and Scenarios for Hardware-Enabled AI Governance

Feb 6•Alvin Ånestrand

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Why Future AIs will Require New Alignment Methods

Shallow Alignment VS Deep Alignment

Oct 10, 2025•Alvin Ånestrand

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AI and Biological Risk: Forecasting Key Capability Thresholds

AI-Enabled Human-Caused Biological Catastrophes - Part 1

Oct 1, 2025•Alvin Ånestrand

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AI Turning Points: Timelines and Stakes

Exploring critical thresholds in dangerous AI capabilities

Sep 17, 2025•Alvin Ånestrand

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The ultimate goal

Why forecasting AI?

Jul 5, 2025•Alvin Ånestrand

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