Damnang’s Substack | Substack

Intel's AI Packaging Bet Against TSMC \ \ Intel ($INTC) closed at $140.94 on June 22, a fresh all-time high. That is roughly +570% from a year ago, more than six times the price. A stock that briefly fell to $19 within the past year carried a market value of around $700 billion at that June 22 close, pushing Intel beyond its dot-com-era peak. Everyone says Intel is back. That is fair enough, but if you look closely at what brought it back, the company’s single largest opportunity is still sitting outside all the cheering.\ \ Nutty

In this piece, Nutty explains why Intel is choosing to attack TSMC through the side door of packaging rather than taking on its leading node dominance head on.

The article breaks down why EMIB, Foveros, and hybrid bonding matter, and why the HBM4 era is turning memory base dies and advanced packaging into a new semiconductor battlefield.

If you…

[substack.com\ \ Nutty\ \ Analog IC Design Engineer in Silicon Valley. Writing about circuits, semiconductors & industry.\ \

Optics expert PhotonCap uses the recent Micron and Anthropic agreement as a starting point to explain why the memory bottleneck in AI infrastructure is becoming a structural problem.

The piece breaks down why HBM shortages are lifting the broader DRAM market, and why the next path toward memory disaggregation may make optics increasingly important.

The More Anthropic Buys Micron HBM, the Faster Optical Memory Pooling Arrives

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I have made the following paid articles free.

I believe basic knowledge of optics, especially CPO, is something everyone should understand, so I decided to make all of my previously paid articles on this topic available for free.

I can confidently say that if you read all of these articles, you will be able to build your own conviction on …

The War of Light Has Begun

The War of Light, Part 2: Who's at the Table, Who's Not, and Who's Hiding

Why CPO Is Becoming Inevitable? [CPO Special Part 1]

CPO, Fully Dissected [CPO Special Part 2]

The Illusion of CPO [CPO Special Final]

$AAOI may be one of the most controversial optical stocks in the market.

Just look at the analyst price targets. They range from as low as $57.50 to as high as $220. Investors and analysts are looking at the same company, yet some believe it is far too expensive, while others still see significant upside.

In this article, I take a deeper l…

AAOI: Down 37% From Its Peak. Opportunity or Trap?

In June 2026, JEDEC published a new standard called SPHBM4.

If SPHBM4 reaches commercial scale, which memory company will gain the upper hand? Which foundry will stand out? And how will the power dynamics shift among memory makers, foundries, Nvidia, and hyperscalers?

This article begins by explaining, in the simplest possible way, what SP…

SPHBM4: The HBM Packaging Playbook Is Changing

Don’t miss his great works!

atlas.nuttycld.workers.dev

[Inside the AI Build-Out - by Nutty]

I turned the essays I’ve written so far into a single map.

Over the past few months, I’ve written more than twenty essays on AI infrastructure. Power, memory, servers, optics, neoclouds… the topics may look scattered, but they are all really about one question:

How is AI infrastructure actually being bui…

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Babbage

Could say that the post office is getting some root and branch reform.

I’ll get my coat …..

Matt Brown

While the Post Office is busy closing its branches, here’s an example of some branches closing in on the Post Office. This postbox on Drayton Gardens, South Kensington is slowly being devoured by a London plane tree.

The strength of Nutty’s articles is to explain even the most difficult technologies in simple language that an elementary school student can understand.

His latest article covers everything that an optical investor needs to know.

Have you read several optical articles before but still found some parts confusing technically?

I promise that by re…

An Investor’s Handbook I - AI Optics

Compute is starting to trade like a commodity.

CME and ICE are moving to list GPU rental rate futures. Big tech is no longer just buying chips. It is contracting compute capacity in dollars, gigawatts, and long term commitments.

PhotonCap 's new article looks one layer below NVIDIA, cloud, and power.

If contracted compute turns into wafer starts, th…

photoncap.net/p/compute-is-the-new-oil-so-who-b…

CME and ICE are moving to list compute as a futures commodity. The moment compute becomes a commodity, the question shifts from who sells the GPU to who holds the production bottleneck. Whoever wins the chip war, everyone passes through one layer.

Contracting GW eventually translates into wafer starts one layer down
Whoever wins, they all …

Why have memory stocks gone up so much?

Because the smarter AI gets, the more memory it consumes, the more bandwidth it needs, and the more data it has to keep moving.

The problem is that this memory cannot be produced easily, even if the industry wants more of it. HBM is constrained by process complexity, packaging, yield, equipment, and …

How the Memory Tax Gets Solved

The market is completely missing the real story behind NVIDIA’s memory cut.

When news broke that NVIDIA halved its CPU-side SOCAMM memory, the market panicked over supply shortages. But Nutty’s latest brilliant piece exposes the hidden reality: Micron says "pack in more," yet NVIDIA is aggressively redesigning the entire memory hierarchy into …

Why NVIDIA Halved the Middle Memory

Did the market completely misread the recent Micron and AI memory selloff?

When rumors broke that NVIDIA’s Rubin platform would halve its CPU-side SOCAMM capacity, panic selling ensued. But PhotonCap ’s brilliant new piece reveals the truth: this isn't a demand destruction issue—it's a critical supply and thermal wall.

Dive into this masterclass a…

The Cut Was Not HBM: The SOCAMM Selloff and the Optical Memory Fabric

The market is asking the wrong question about AI data center optics.

While everyone is obsessed with "who builds the fastest laser," PhotonCap ’s latest piece brillianty maps the real battleground: material physics, serialization costs, and the shifting dynamics between InP, GaAs, and GaN.

If you want to understand the structural cost gaps driving…

The AI Light Source War Is Not a Speed Race: InP, VCSEL, and μLED Are Buying Different Distances

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Jun 15

The verbs in glass substrate news changed this year.

Sentences that read "developing" and "evaluating" last year now read "entered qualification," "shipped samples," "pilot line complete."

But "glass substrate" is really four things in one basket: core substrate, interposer, temporary carrier, fiber cloth. Different winners, different payout timing.

Read Damnang’s article

Glass Substrate: The Order the Money Flows In

I have made the following paid articles free.

I can confidently say that if you read all of these articles, you will be able to build your own conviction on …

The War of Light Has Begun

The War of Light, Part 2: Who's at the Table, Who's Not, and Who's Hiding

Why CPO Is Becoming Inevitable? [CPO Special Part 1]

CPO, Fully Dissected [CPO Special Part 2]

The Illusion of CPO [CPO Special Final]

This article is a deep dive on Coherent ($COHR).

I wrote it with the help of one of my Substack subscribers, a professional investor, who helped relay my technical questions directly to Coherent’s C-level management. The article is based on the detailed answers I received.

In particular, I cover what I believe the market still does not ful…

Coherent: The Company That Gets Stronger in the CPO Era

Jun 16

I previously wrote an article on glass substrates.

At the time, I covered the technology and supply chain, but looking back, glass substrates by themselves are ultimately just a materials story. The real investment question is where and how that glass will actually be used.

That stage is CoPoS, Chip on Panel on Substrate.

But two things abo…

If CoPoS Arrives, Who Makes Money First

Glass Substrate: The Order the Money Flows In

Jun 14

Glass substrates are no longer just a research story. The technology is now moving into customer qualification, reliability testing, and early commercialization preparation.

But this is not yet a broad mass adoption story. That distinction matters for investors.

To invest in this theme properly, you need to understand what role glass actua…

Glass Substrate: The Order the Money Flows In

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Jun 10

Dylan Patel has been one of my role models since I started my Substack.

It is truly an honor to have him become a paid subscriber.

I will continue working hard to provide deeper semiconductor analysis. Thanks.

Jun 10

Dylan Patel has been one of my role models since I started my Substack.

It is truly an honor to have him become a paid subscriber.

I will continue working hard to provide deeper semiconductor analysis. Thanks.

Damnang restacked

Jun 9

@Damnang's latest: Vera Rubin's DRAM cut in half — is the memory cycle really over?

On June 4, SemiAnalysis reported NVIDIA lowering the Vera Rubin SOCAMM standard build from 192GB to 96GB modules, halving CPU-side memory per rack from ~54TB to ~28TB. Memory and storage stocks fell the next day.

The piece starts by separating two things th…

Vera Rubin’s DRAM Cut in Half: Is the Memory Cycle Really Over?

Jun 9

The Market Doesn’t know CPO yet

The Market Doesn’t Know CPO Yet

Jun 8

PIKA is coming to Substack!

Don’t miss his great article!

Ren

The AI Buildout Has Twelve Floors. Most Investors Only See a Couple.

Jun 5

Had to go Super Saiyan today 😤

Jun 4

I currently run several professional communities:

A career community of over 1,000 industry professionals

A semiconductor community of over 200 professionals

An optics expert community of around 30 specialists

Jun 4

This article started with one interesting comment I heard during a recent technical discussion with professionals in the memory industry.

“Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the three major memory companies, are actively evaluating whether MicroLED technology can be adopted.”

To be honest, even while writing several articles on optical technol…

MicroLED: The Optical Technology All Three Memory Makers Are Watching

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Jun 3

STM is one of those companies that keeps showing up where you don’t expect it.

Look into SiC, it’s there. Look into GaN, it’s there. MEMS, STM32, robotics, satellites, data centers, automotive power — different themes on the surface, but the same company keeps appearing underneath.

My friend wrote a great anatomy of STM, not as a simple Eu…

The Company That Shows Up No Matter Which Sector You Look At: A Full Anatomy of STM

Jun 2

Marvell CEO calls connectivity the next AI bottleneck, as Nvidia's CEO proclaims Marvell the "next trillion dollar company"

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Marvell Part 2: After a 2x Move, How Much Higher Can It Go?

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Tae Kim

Jun 1

I’m looking forward to his big speech tomorrow

May 31

Most quantum computing discussions still focus on qubit count and gate fidelity.

But as these systems scale, the bottleneck starts to move from the quantum device itself to the links between devices.

A single chip, refrigerator, or ion trap can only go so far. Beyond that point, quantum systems need a way to connect separate modules, and m…

Superconducting or Trapped Ion, They All Buy the Same Light: The Hidden Layer That Wires Quantum Computers Rack to Rack

May 31

I sincerely appreciate all of my paid subscribers who value and support my articles.

I will continue doing my best to provide more valuable research and insights going forward.

The price of my Substack will increase on June 1.

Grandfathering will apply to existing paid subscribers. Anyone who subscribes by May 31 will also be locked in at the current price.

Thank you.

The Nuclear Cycle AI Data Centers Revived: 13 Listed Companies Beyond Constellation and Cameco \ \ AI data center power demand has triggered a nuclear renaissance. As of April 2026, over 75 reactors are under construction worldwide (WNA), and the U.S. DOE has set a target of adding 200GW of new nuclear capacity by 2050. This article deconstructs the nuclear supply chain into 5 tiers (Fuel, Reactor Design, Components, EPC, Operations/Services) and scores 13 globally listed companies (4 Korean, 9 international) using the PhotonCap GVM framework. With 1-year returns ranging from +322% to -50% across the same supply chain, we map where alpha remains.\ \ PhotonCap

May 31

AI data center power demand is not just reviving nuclear stock.

It is forcing the market to reprice the entire nuclear supply chain.The problem is that most investors are still focused on the obvious winners.

In this article, PhotonCap breaks the nuclear cycle into fuel, reactor design, components, construction, and operations, then analyze 13 li…

stocks.it\ \ stocks.it - This website is for sale! - stocks Resources and Information.\ \ This website is for sale! stocks.it is your first and best source for information about stocks. Here you will also find topics relating to issues of general interest. We hope you find what you are looking for!

May 30

Cerebras' technical achievement is clear.

It turned an entire wafer into a single chip, routed around defects, and placed 44GB of SRAM right next to the compute engines. It is a direct attempt to solve the memory bottleneck that GPUs have faced for years, but through a fundamentally different architecture.

However, there have not been many…

Cerebras WSE-3: The Technical Achievement and the Physical Ceiling

Damnang restacked

May 28

Hello, this is Damnang.

Starting June 1, the subscription price for Damnang Substack will increase.

Current pricing is as follows:

Monthly subscription: $30

May 28

Hello, this is Damnang.

Starting June 1, the subscription price for Damnang Substack will increase.

Current pricing is as follows:

Monthly subscription: $30

May 28

This article connects the May earnings from Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell into one AI optical interconnect thesis.

The key point is not just Marvell’s earnings beat. It is that the laser, transceiver, DSP, switch, and silicon photonics layers are all confirming the same demand cycle.

PhotonCap lays out one of the clearest supply chain maps on how…

The Third Signal in May: Marvell Confirms the AI Optical Signal from Lumentum and Coherent

Damnang restacked

Nasdaq 100 was down today.

$LPTH was up +8.4%, pushing back near 52-week highs.

This is still a loss-making IR optics company with only ~$50M of FY26 nine-month revenue.

Market cap: ~$1B.

America Needs to Cut Chinese Germanium: Why Loss-Making IR Optics Company LPTH Trades at P/S 16x

Damnang restacked

Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE / SIVEF) — up 2,104% in six months, and now sitting at a $2.5B market cap on $33M in revenue. My colleague Damnang just published a deep dive co-authored with Nutty and myself, building on the CPO ELS laser source thesis I covered in my "Silicon Photonics Light Source War" piece back in March. This one goes fu…

Sivers Semiconductors: Verifying the Thesis After a 2,100% Run in Six Months

Damnang restacked

The easiest way to look at a stock after a 2,100% move is to say it is too expensive.

The harder question is different.

What production success has the market already priced in, and what signals would either validate or break the thesis from here?

This piece does not treat Sivers as just another CPO hype stock. It reads the company at the i…

Sivers Semiconductors: Verifying the Thesis After a 2,100% Run in Six Months

Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE) has risen 2100% over the past six months.

The company generated roughly $33M in revenue, remains unprofitable, and now has a market cap of around $2.5B.

Should this be viewed simply as an overheated small cap riding the CPO theme?

Or is Sivers one of the few public vehicles directly exposed to the laser source …

Sivers Semiconductors: Verifying the Thesis After a 2,100% Run in Six Months

May 24

Two months after I published my first Marvell article, the stock has nearly doubled.

That means the market has already started to re rate Marvell to some extent.

In this article, I will walk through how far that re rating has already gone, and then examine the technical catalysts that I believe the market still has not fully priced in, esp…

Marvell Part 2: After a 2x Move, How Much Higher Can It Go?

May 24

For the investors who are interested with ALAB 🫡

phylins's Substack

Astera Labs (ALAB) Should Not Be Valued by P/E: If 2027 Revenue Doubles, What Is the Market Really Pricing In?

May 22

I prefer companies that rise quietly and gradually, before everyone starts talking about them.

$CDNS is one of those names.

The Cadence Ambition the Market Isn't Pricing Yet

May 22

Congrats to everyone who invested in Qualcomm after reading my article.🚀🚀

The One Sentence That Made Me Look at Qualcomm Again

May 21

My friend Fabian had already covered this company in depth.

He is truly impressive.

Before reading my article, I highly recommend reading his piece as well.

Fabian's Substack

Lattice Semiconductor in the AI Infrastructure Supercycle: Low Power FPGAs for Control, Connectivity, and Edge Intelligence.

Lattice Semiconductor: The Companion Chip That Wins Either Way

May 21

Lattice Semiconductor ($LSCC) rose 12% in a single day yesterday.

Inside AI servers, there are multiple socket battles happening across GPUs, ASICs, NICs, CXL, and optical chips. The winners can keep changing.

But no matter who wins the main compute socket, every server still needs a control layer that boots, manages, protects, and control…

Lattice Semiconductor: The Companion Chip That Wins Either Way

May 20

Great article 👍

Gaetano

NVIDIA Just Told Us Something Important For Nokia

May 20

It has already doubled in just two months since I wrote the article.

Of course, I’m not saying this is because I’m special. The market environment has clearly been favorable.

But personally, I feel like the optical investment trend is shifting from 1.0 to 2.0.

Once I organize my research, I’ll share it again on my Substack.

The Marvell You Never Knew

May 20

As the space industry era begins, I believe more and more investor attention will gradually flow into the space theme.

At this point, Nutty’s article is especially meaningful.

I highly recommend reading it.

The LEO RF Map After SpaceX’s IPO

May 19

Many analysts are now taking a second look at Nokia.

The market is no longer viewing it only as a traditional telecom equipment company. The new debate is whether Nokia should be re rated as an AI network infrastructure company.

But there is still one question that has not been clearly answered.

Is Nokia cheap or expensive at the current pr…

Nokia ($NOK): The Market Is Still Putting This Company in the Wrong Bucket

May 13

I have been talking about $CSCO for the past two to three months.

I may have been one of the first people on X or Substack to seriously discuss $CSCO from this angle.

Now it finally feels like Cisco is starting to get its moment.

If you have read my Optical Investment Map or my Cisco article, you probably already understand why the market i…

Beyond NVIDIA and Broadcom: What the Market May Be Missing

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May 12

An insight from Damnang, who has been writing consistently deep pieces on HBM.

What I found especially interesting in this article is that it frames the memory rally not simply as “HBM demand keeps growing,” but as a question of how long HBM’s pricing power can hold.

substack.com/@taekim/note/c-222229140

Will the Memory Stock Rally Keep Going?

He is awesome!!

Credo stock up roughly 100% since my March 2 bull call on my Substack

$CRDO

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