Macro Recklesss

Market musings of a non conventional thinker.

By Arun Singhal

· Launched 2 months ago

The Default That Already Happened

The bondholder pays the pre-emption every time and she has noticed.

May 25 • Arun Singhal

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Are bears wrong on the mass unemployment narrative?

I look at the debate on a stalling US labour market and AI Capex led growth.

Apr 27 • Arun Singhal

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AI Has Already Broken Services Pricing In One Sector.

Services inflation, the structurally stickier problem underneath, has had its unit economics broken in one sector already. Five orders of magnitude in…

Apr 15 • Arun Singhal

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The Dividend Cycle Has Started. The Default Cycle Hasn't.

Everyone's waiting for non-accruals to spike. That's the wrong metric. The earnings power that pays the dividends is where the story has already moved.

Apr 12 • Arun Singhal

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I Built 8 Quant Strategies. Then I Tried to Kill Them.

How applying Lopez de Prado’s False Discovery Rate framework to my own research destroyed half my portfolio and why that’s the best thing that could…

Apr 9 • Arun Singhal

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Macro Recklesss

Market musings of a non conventional thinker.