ArmoricaCapital's Substack

Systematic global macro portfolio.

By Armorica Capital

· Launched 5 months ago

OpenAI Is Not Google. It Is Exxon.

If tokens are the new commodity, AI labs will earn commodity returns.

Jun 19•Armorica Capital

The Fed Won’t Hike Into This

Mar 28•Armorica Capital

Energy, Growth, and the Equity Disconnect

Apr 11•Armorica Capital

When Valuations Matter — and When They Don't

Feb 19•Armorica Capital

May non-farm payrolls: The print and the trend

The May payroll beat changed the market narrative. It did not change the labor-market trend.

Jun 8•Armorica Capital

AC Portfolio - May 2026

-1.7% Month | -2.8% YTD | Sharpe -0.5

Jun 5•Armorica Capital

AI and the Physics of Productivity

Each technological wave delivers less productivity than the last. The market has not priced this for AI.

May 18•Armorica Capital

A look at valuations: Frothy US Market, Fair Elsewhere

Most of the world's equity markets are relatively cheap, but the US's valuation extreme is all we can see.

May 11•Armorica Capital

AC Portfolio - April 2026

-0.7% Month | -1.1% YTD | Sharpe -0.28

May 4•Armorica Capital

Profits Without Prosperity

Why rising earnings don’t signal economic strength

Apr 23•Armorica Capital

Energy, Growth, and the Equity Disconnect

Why Markets Underestimate the Impact of Energy Shocks

Apr 11•Armorica Capital